View from the CouncilRoderich Kiesewetter
View from the Council
Roderich Kiesewetter - 15 October, 2020
Recent events show that Moscow does not take Berlin seriously when it acts alone. Germany must coordinate its actions at the European level and find common responses to Russia’s behaviour.
Nicu Popescu - 13 October, 2020
EU diplomacy could facilitate a conflict settlement process by pressuring Armenia and Azerbaijan to start implementing the Madrid Principles.
Nicu Popescu - 8 October, 2020
Russia appears willing to allow Azerbaijan to recapture some areas around Nagorno-Karabakh, betting on Armenian dependency and Azerbaijani gratitude.
Nicu Popescu - 2 October, 2020
Azerbaijan and Armenia are shifting from two decades of ‘frozen conflict settlement’ to an era of ‘salami-slicing wars’ – small conflicts designed to extract diplomatic concessions or regain territory from the adversary slice by slice.
Asli Aydıntaşbaş - 24 September, 2020
A conflict could be brewing in the eastern Mediterranean. Here’s how to stop it.
Majda Ruge, Stefan Vladisavljev - 22 September, 2020
There is no obvious reason why Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic would turn his back on a relationship with China from which he draws a great deal of political capital.
Andrew Wilson - 17 September, 2020
The EU should make use of its significant leverage in Georgia and Moldova to counter their ruling parties’ extensive repertoire of electoral dirty tricks
Asli Aydıntaşbaş - 28 May, 2020
EU member states can find ways to cooperate with Turkey to support stabilisation in parts of the safe zone, without violating their interests and core principle
Dumitru Minzarari and Vadim Pistrinciuc - 23 April, 2020
Failure to strengthen Eastern Partnership states could strengthen Russia and allow authoritarianism to diffuse westward into the EU
Beáta Huszka - 7 January, 2020
The EU should demonstrate its commitment to the Western Balkans by encouraging countries there to resolve their outstanding disputes
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Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Europe´s mediatory power & Turkish-Greek reconciliation
Berlin - 29 Sep 20
virtual debate ahead of the special European Council on Europe´s mediatory power in the Eastern Mediterranean
Turkey’s role in the Eastern Mediterranean: Threats of Conflict and Prospects for Dialogue
Berlin - 17 Sep 20
a conversation with Ibrahim Kalin to discuss Turkey’s assertive policy, prospects of dialogue, and implications for Turkish-European relations
Kosovo’s Political Coherence during Pandemics and Negotiations with Serbia
Berlin - 07 Sep 20
debate with Albin Kurti, former Prime Minister of the Republic of Kosovo
Sanctions on Russia: Profits, Pitfalls and Prospects
Berlin - 04 Mar 20
Experts present a report on the effectiveness and downfalls of the sanctions that were imposed on Russia by the European Union and the United States in the aftermath of the illegal annexation of Crimea.
Entre sanctions et négociations : quelles perspectives pour les relations Europe - Russie ?
Paris - 24 Jan 20
Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à un Black Coffee Morning en présence d'Andrew Wilson, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik et Nicu Popescu.
In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro stepped in as host and welcomes senior policy fellows Kadri Liik and Andrew Wilson as well as political scientist and editor of “Belarus-Analysen” Olga Dryndova to the podcast. Together, they shed light on the situation on the ground in Belarus: what are the goals do of the opposition in Belarus and what kind, if any, strategy does it have for achieving them? How does long-time president Lukashenko see the situation and what is the state’s strategy to try to remain in power? And finally, what roles should the EU and Russia play in a mediation process?
Further reading: Why the EU now needs a deliberate Belarus policy, by Andrew Wilson
This podcast was recorded on 26 August 2020.
- "Berlin 1936: 16 days in August" by Oliver Hilmes
- Follow Tadeusz Giczan for analyses on Belarus on Twitter
- "Lie Machines: How to save democracy from troll armies, deceitful robots, junk news operations, and political operatives" by Philip N. Howard
- Collections of essays by Haljand Udam
- "Einstein’s dream" by Alan Lightman
Kadri Liik presented her latest policy brief "The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats" in a webinar organised by the Rome Office on 25 May 2020.
Russia’s new generation of foreign policy professionals brings with them a shift in attitudes that challenges the centrality of “the West” in Russian foreign policy. Today’s young professionals are often bitterly affected by “disillusionment” with the West, but the youngest of them – people in their 20s – are free of such emotion, harbouring an outlook that is sharply realist and pragmatic. Russia’s young foreign policy professionals are neither Putin loyalists nor Western-style liberals: they are wary of ready-made ideologies and prefer to attend to their own consciences. Young diplomats’ ability to shape policy will depend on the balance of power between ‘civilian’ and ‘power’ ministries in Russia (such as, respectively, the foreign and defence ministries), with the former in retreat lately. These shifts mean the West should not hold out hope for the optimism of the 1990s to return once Putin departs.
ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin, Spokesman and Senior Advisor to the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Chaired by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director of ECFR’s MENA programme, this conversation assessed the Turkish fight against coronavirus, the refugee deal and Turkish-European relations, and will have a particular focus on developments across the Middle East – namely in Syria and Libya – where Ankara is a key and active player.
Recorded on 16 April 2020.
How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change of the constitution and Putin’s decision to essentially stay in power until 2036? Our ECFR experts also point out the strange absence of the Russian leader from the fight against corona – has covid-19 as well as the oil price crisis caused more turbulence and chaos in the country as he wants to admit? Host Mark Leonard, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik and Nicu Popescu come forward with analyses and predictions: if the EU doesn’t handle the crisis well, could Russia have been right in its Hobbsian view of the world?
This podcast was recorded on 8 April 2020.
Check out our “Dive Deep into Russia” lecture series by the ECFR Wider Europe Programme!
- "The Idiot" by Fyodor Dostoyevsky
- "The Rise and Fall of 'Neutral' Sweden's Secret Reserve Option of Wartime Help from the West" by Robert Dalsjö
- "Чужая и наша война - Сборник стихотворений и песен о военной операции Вооружённых Сил Российской Федерации против международных террористов в Сирийской Арабской Республике” by Сост. В.А. Силкин
- "Why Russians don't get coronavirus” by Albatros
- "Summertime" by JM Coetzee
- "Discovering Judith Shklar sceptical liberalism of fear” by Samantha Ashenden & Andreas Hess
Last week’s episode saw our experts dissecting the coronavirus’ implications for Europe. In today's episode, we’re breaking down how the crisis is unfolding in the rest of the world. From the Middle East to Russia and Asia, and all over across the Atlantic – what long-term effects could it have on these regions? And what does it mean for geopolitics, the global system and its institutions?
Our Host Mark Leonard is joined by the ECFR heads of programme Julien Barnes-Dacey, Susi Dennison, Janka Oertel & Nicu Popescu to discuss how the virus is manifesting in these regions, and the implications it carries with it – and it doesn’t look too good. For all the gloominess this podcast will create, our experts recommend turning to poetry for some soul-healing. Recommendations below!
This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2020.
- "The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock" by T.S.Elliot
- "Happy Everyday" by Benjamin Zephaniah
- "MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed Bin Salman" by Ben Hubbard
- "Sandworm" by Andy Greenberg
- "The Pursuit of Power" by William H. McNeill
- "Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy" by Cathy O'Neil
- "The Psychology of Pandemics. Preparing for the Next Global Outbreak of Infectious Disease" by Steven Taylor
- "The Coronavirus pandemic and the new world it is creating" by Josep Borrell
The European Union faces a multi-crisis situation at the moment. As the conflict in Idlib and the circumstances at the Greek-Turkish border has erupted, Europe seems to have troubles to respond to latest developments in the Syrian war and threats from Turkey.
Host Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR co-chair and former Prime Minister of Sweden, Carl Bildt as well as by the ECFR experts Asli Aydintasbas and Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the reasoning behind Ankara’s recent moves and the EU’s reactions. How to avoid a 2015-like situation but without tossing its own values and human rights out off the window? And how to deal with the other seats of fire within the Union itself?
This podcast was recorded on 12 March 2020.
- Syrian voices: Where next for European policy?
• The Anarchy by William Dalrymple
• Pax Sinica: implications for the India dawn by Samir Saran and Akhil Deo
• Black Lamb and Grey Falcon by Rebecca West
• Blame Europe, not just Turkey, for migration deal collapse by Kati Piri
• Beyond blackmail at the Greek-Turkish border by Nathalie Tocci
• Clash of Empires: Currencies and Power in a Multipolar World by Charles Gave & Louis-Vincent Gave
It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark Leonard is joined by Kadri Liik and Gustav Gressel to elaborate on the recent political changes that have happened in the world’ largest country over the course of just the past weeks. What role will Putin play in the future in Russia and on the global stage? Is there a change to recent the relationship between the EU and Moscow? And was does this all mean to Belarus, Ukraine and the NordStream 2 project?
- "Will he stay or will he go? Putin’s role will change" by Kadri Liik
- "The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats" by Kadri Liik
This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2020.
- "Brennender Enzian: Die Operationsplanung der NATO für Österreich und Norditalien 1951 bis 1960" by Dieter Krüger
- "Admissions" by Henry Marsh
- "When Breath Becomes Air" by Paul Kalanithi
- "Traditions and Trends in Global Environmental Politics; International Relations and the Earth" ed. by Olaf Corry & Hayley Stevenson
North Macedonia and Albania wanted to start negotiations with the EU after having been candidate countries since 2005 and 2014. But the enlargement plans seemed to have stalled especially after opposition from France.
Host Mark Leonard is joined by Susi Dennison, José Ignacio Torreblanca and Vessela Tcherneva to get to the bottom of things and the divisions particularly between France and Germany on this issue.
The podcast as recorded on 17 October 2019.
- The Age of Surveillance Capitalism" by Shoshana Zuboff
- "Spring" by Ali Smith
- "The light that failed" by Ivan Krastev & Stephen Holmes
- "State of the Union" Miniseries on BBC Two