Serbia’s 5G deal with Washington: The art of muddling through (Commentary)

Majda Ruge, Stefan Vladisavljev - 22 September 2020

There is no obvious reason why Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic would turn his back on a relationship with China from which he draws a great deal of political capital.

Meeting Svetlana Tikhanovskaya: How Europeans should support the Belarusian opposition (Commentary)

Lia Quartapelle - 16 September 2020

The EU should nurture Belarusian protesters’ experiences with political participation and their demands for democracy.

Belarus and Armenia: How Russia handles uprisings (Commentary)

Gustav Gressel & Nicu Popescu & Andrew Wilson - 16 September 2020

Russia’s goal in its neighbourhood is to regain influence, not to be surrounded by neutral, self-sufficient buffer states.

What Montenegro’s future government means for the Western Balkans (Commentary)

Sinisa Vukovic, Majda Ruge - 15 September 2020

Supporters of Western integration for Montenegro may look hopefully at the smallest – and pro-European – member of the new coalition. But wider forces are likely to overwhelm it.

Trump’s Kosovo show: No big deal (Commentary)

Majda Ruge - 10 September 2020

The White House’s sloppy agreement does little to advance dialogue, and comes at a high price.

Under the waves: Turkey’s Black Sea gas discovery and relations with Europe (Commentary)

Asli Aydıntaşbaş - 03 September 2020

Turkey’s discovery of a large gas reserve in the Black Sea could benefit its economy in six or seven years, but it will not ease Turkish-European tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The slow dismantling of the Belarusian state (Commentary)

Gustav Gressel - 02 September 2020

While this revolutionary movement did not start as a geopolitical endeavour, it will certainly end as one.

Berlin - 17 Sep 20

 a conversation with Ibrahim Kalin to discuss Turkey’s assertive policy, prospects of dialogue, and implications for Turkish-European relations

Berlin - 07 Sep 20

debate with Albin Kurti, former Prime Minister of the Republic of Kosovo

Rome - 25 May 20

Russia’s young foreign policy professionals are neither Putin loyalists nor Western-style liberals

Berlin - 04 Mar 20

Experts present a report on the effectiveness and downfalls of the sanctions that were imposed on Russia by the European Union and the United States in the aftermath of the illegal annexation of Crimea. 

Paris - 24 Jan 20

Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à un Black Coffee Morning en présence d'Andrew Wilson, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik et Nicu Popescu.

Berlin - 11 Dec 19

Today we invite you for a black coffee morning session with Samuel Greene, co-author of "Putin v. The People - The Perilous Politics of a Divided Russia" and Russia-expert. The session will be chaired by ECFRs own Russia-expert Kadri Liik.

Berlin - 05 Nov 19

Experts present a new comprehensive proposal for a revision on the regional order addressing the issues which currently hurt the relationship between Russia and the West.

Protest movement in Belarus: Will Lukashenko survive the current state (of) crisis?

In this week’s episode, Jeremy Shapiro stepped in as host and welcomes senior policy fellows Kadri Liik and Andrew Wilson as well as political scientist and editor of “Belarus-Analysen” Olga Dryndova to the podcast. Together, they shed light on the situation on the ground in Belarus: what are the goals do of the opposition in Belarus and what kind, if any, strategy does it have for achieving them?  How does long-time president Lukashenko see the situation and what is the state’s strategy to try to remain in power? And finally, what roles should the EU and Russia play in a mediation process?

Further reading: Why the EU now needs a deliberate Belarus policy, by Andrew Wilson

This podcast was recorded on 26 August 2020.

Bookshelf:

• "Berlin 1936: 16 days in August" by Oliver Hilmes 
• Follow Tadeusz Giczan for analyses on Belarus on Twitter
• "Lie Machines: How to save democracy from troll armies, deceitful robots, junk news operations, and political operatives" by Philip N. Howard 
• Collections of essays by Haljand Udam  
•  "Einstein’s dream" by Alan Lightman 

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The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats

Kadri Liik presented her latest policy brief "The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats" in a webinar organised by the Rome Office on 25 May 2020.

Russia’s new generation of foreign policy professionals brings with them a shift in attitudes that challenges the centrality of “the West” in Russian foreign policy. Today’s young professionals are often bitterly affected by “disillusionment” with the West, but the youngest of them – people in their 20s – are free of such emotion, harbouring an outlook that is sharply realist and pragmatic. Russia’s young foreign policy professionals are neither Putin loyalists nor Western-style liberals: they are wary of ready-made ideologies and prefer to attend to their own consciences. Young diplomats’ ability to shape policy will depend on the balance of power between ‘civilian’ and ‘power’ ministries in Russia (such as, respectively, the foreign and defence ministries), with the former in retreat lately. These shifts mean the West should not hold out hope for the optimism of the 1990s to return once Putin departs.

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ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin

ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin, Spokesman and Senior Advisor to the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Chaired by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director of ECFR’s MENA programme, this conversation assessed the Turkish fight against coronavirus, the refugee deal and Turkish-European relations, and will have a particular focus on developments across the Middle East – namely in Syria and Libya – where Ankara is a key and active player.

Recorded on 16 April 2020.

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As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.

How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change of the constitution and Putin’s decision to essentially stay in power until 2036? Our ECFR experts also point out the strange absence of the Russian leader from the fight against corona – has covid-19 as well as the oil price crisis caused more turbulence and chaos in the country as he wants to admit? Host Mark Leonard, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik and Nicu Popescu come forward with analyses and predictions: if the EU doesn’t handle the crisis well, could Russia have been right in its Hobbsian view of the world?

This podcast was recorded on 8 April 2020.

Check out our “Dive Deep into Russia” lecture series by the ECFR Wider Europe Programme!

Bookshelf:

• "The Idiot" by Fyodor Dostoyevsky
• "The Rise and Fall of 'Neutral' Sweden's Secret Reserve Option of Wartime Help from the West" by Robert Dalsjö
• "Чужая и наша война - Сборник стихотворений и песен о военной операции Вооружённых Сил Российской Федерации против международных террористов в Сирийской Арабской Республике” by Сост. В.А. Силкин
• "Why Russians don't get coronavirus” by Albatros
• "Summertime" by JM Coetzee
• "Discovering Judith Shklar sceptical liberalism of fear” by Samantha Ashenden & Andreas Hess

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Geopolitics in the coronavirus era – who will be crowned winner?

Last week’s episode saw our experts dissecting the coronavirus’ implications for Europe. In today's episode, we’re breaking down how the crisis is unfolding in the rest of the world. From the Middle East to Russia and Asia, and all over across the Atlantic – what long-term effects could it have on these regions? And what does it mean for geopolitics, the global system and its institutions?
Our Host Mark Leonard is joined by the ECFR heads of programme Julien Barnes-Dacey, Susi Dennison, Janka Oertel & Nicu Popescu to discuss how the virus is manifesting in these regions, and the implications it carries with it – and it doesn’t look too good. For all the gloominess this podcast will create, our experts recommend turning to poetry for some soul-healing. Recommendations below!

This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2020.

Bookshelf:

• "The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock" by T.S.Elliot
• "Happy Everyday" by Benjamin Zephaniah
   
• "MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed Bin Salman" by Ben Hubbard
• "Sandworm" by Andy Greenberg
• "The Pursuit of Power" by William H. McNeill
• "Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy" by Cathy O'Neil
• "The Psychology of Pandemics. Preparing for the Next Global Outbreak of Infectious Disease" by Steven Taylor
• "The Coronavirus pandemic and the new world it is creating" by Josep Borrell

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Many elephants in the room: the EU and the Turkey, Syria, coronavirus and refugee crises

The European Union faces a multi-crisis situation at the moment. As the conflict in Idlib and the circumstances at the Greek-Turkish border has erupted, Europe seems to have troubles to respond to latest developments in the Syrian war and threats from Turkey.
Host Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR co-chair and former Prime Minister of Sweden, Carl Bildt as well as by the ECFR experts Asli Aydintasbas and Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the reasoning behind Ankara’s recent moves and the EU’s reactions. How to avoid a 2015-like situation but without tossing its own values and human rights out off the window? And how to deal with the other seats of fire within the Union itself?

This podcast was recorded on 12 March 2020.

Further reading:
- Syrian voices: Where next for European policy?

Bookshelf:
• The Anarchy by William Dalrymple
• Pax Sinica: implications for the India dawn by Samir Saran and Akhil Deo
• Black Lamb and Grey Falcon by Rebecca West
• Blame Europe, not just Turkey, for migration deal collapse by Kati Piri
• Beyond blackmail at the Greek-Turkish border by Nathalie Tocci
• Clash of Empires: Currencies and Power in a Multipolar World by Charles Gave & Louis-Vincent Gave

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Reshuffling Russia's leadership - old wines in new bottles?

It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark Leonard is joined by Kadri Liik and Gustav Gressel to elaborate on the recent political changes that have happened in the world’ largest country over the course of just the past weeks. What role will Putin play in the future in Russia and on the global stage? Is there a change to recent the relationship between the EU and Moscow? And was does this all mean to Belarus, Ukraine and the NordStream 2 project?

Further read:

• "Will he stay or will he go? Putin’s role will change" by Kadri Liik
• "The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats" by Kadri Liik

This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2020.

Bookshelf:

• "Brennender Enzian: Die Operationsplanung der NATO für Österreich und Norditalien 1951 bis 1960" by Dieter Krüger
• "Admissions" by Henry Marsh
• "When Breath Becomes Air" by Paul Kalanithi
• "Traditions and Trends in Global Environmental Politics; International Relations and the Earth" ed. by Olaf Corry & Hayley Stevenson

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