Why the war in Libya is a test for Italy – and for a geopolitical European Commission (Commentary)

Marta Dassù - 30 June 2020

If Italy was the front facing east during the cold war, then today it is vulnerable to the south: the country has been drawn into a geopolitical competition that looms over the Strait of Sicily.

Politicised aid: Why Europe should sustain cross-border humanitarian assistance to northern Syria (Commentary)

Kelly Petillo & René Wildangel - 29 June 2020

European countries should work to renew the UN Security Council resolution on cross-border humanitarian access to northern Syria, lest the area slides into a deeper humanitarian crisis.

Hashim Thaci should resign (Commentary)

Carl Bildt, Vessela Tcherneva - 26 June 2020

The indictment for war crimes against Kosovo President Hassim Thaci helpfully upends the poorly conceived US initiative to reconcile Serbia and Kosovo. But it fatally delegitimates Kosovo’s current leadership.

Five mounting challenges for China in the Western Balkans (Commentary)

Vladimir Shopov - 17 June 2020

China has not embedded itself in the Western Balkans as much as it might have done – and may even be looking back on the 2010s as a wasted decade.

Russia’s nuclear deterrence principles: what they imply, and what they do not (Commentary)

Gustav Gressel - 12 June 2020

Russia’s nuclear policy has long been shrouded in secrecy. But a newly published presidential decree on nuclear deterrence clarifies some issues while still leaving ample room for speculation.

Why a new Yalta wouldn’t end the malaise between the West and Russia (Commentary)

Nicu Popescu - 09 June 2020

The political moment might seem propitious for a new Yalta, but such a system is likely to create more problems than it solves.

Serbia and coronavirus propaganda: High time for a transactional EU (Commentary)

Majda Ruge & Nicu Popescu - 04 June 2020

It is time for the EU to direct much more of its financial assistance through channels other than highly corrupt governments that consistently violate European norms and standards.

Rome - 25 May 20

Russia’s young foreign policy professionals are neither Putin loyalists nor Western-style liberals

Berlin - 04 Mar 20

Experts present a report on the effectiveness and downfalls of the sanctions that were imposed on Russia by the European Union and the United States in the aftermath of the illegal annexation of Crimea. 

Paris - 24 Jan 20

Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à un Black Coffee Morning en présence d'Andrew Wilson, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik et Nicu Popescu.

Berlin - 11 Dec 19

Today we invite you for a black coffee morning session with Samuel Greene, co-author of "Putin v. The People - The Perilous Politics of a Divided Russia" and Russia-expert. The session will be chaired by ECFRs own Russia-expert Kadri Liik.

Berlin - 05 Nov 19

Experts present a new comprehensive proposal for a revision on the regional order addressing the issues which currently hurt the relationship between Russia and the West.

Rome - 04 Nov 19

How can the EU demonstrate resolve and respond to the interests of Russia, Turkey, Iran and Saudi-Arabia?

Paris - 17 Oct 19

Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à un Black Coffee Morning en présence de Kadri Liik, Sergey Utkin et Joanna Hosa.

The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats

Kadri Liik presented her latest policy brief "The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats" in a webinar organised by the Rome Office on 25 May 2020.

Russia’s new generation of foreign policy professionals brings with them a shift in attitudes that challenges the centrality of “the West” in Russian foreign policy. Today’s young professionals are often bitterly affected by “disillusionment” with the West, but the youngest of them – people in their 20s – are free of such emotion, harbouring an outlook that is sharply realist and pragmatic. Russia’s young foreign policy professionals are neither Putin loyalists nor Western-style liberals: they are wary of ready-made ideologies and prefer to attend to their own consciences. Young diplomats’ ability to shape policy will depend on the balance of power between ‘civilian’ and ‘power’ ministries in Russia (such as, respectively, the foreign and defence ministries), with the former in retreat lately. These shifts mean the West should not hold out hope for the optimism of the 1990s to return once Putin departs.

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ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin

ECFR Conversation with Ibrahim Kalin, Spokesman and Senior Advisor to the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Chaired by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director of ECFR’s MENA programme, this conversation assessed the Turkish fight against coronavirus, the refugee deal and Turkish-European relations, and will have a particular focus on developments across the Middle East – namely in Syria and Libya – where Ankara is a key and active player.

Recorded on 16 April 2020.

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As covid-19 arrives, Putin disappears – Russia in the age of corona.

How is Russia dealing with covid-19? What impact does the pandemic have on the other underlying political issues in Russia – such as the change of the constitution and Putin’s decision to essentially stay in power until 2036? Our ECFR experts also point out the strange absence of the Russian leader from the fight against corona – has covid-19 as well as the oil price crisis caused more turbulence and chaos in the country as he wants to admit? Host Mark Leonard, Gustav Gressel, Kadri Liik and Nicu Popescu come forward with analyses and predictions: if the EU doesn’t handle the crisis well, could Russia have been right in its Hobbsian view of the world?

This podcast was recorded on 8 April 2020.

Check out our “Dive Deep into Russia” lecture series by the ECFR Wider Europe Programme!

Bookshelf:

• "The Idiot" by Fyodor Dostoyevsky
• "The Rise and Fall of 'Neutral' Sweden's Secret Reserve Option of Wartime Help from the West" by Robert Dalsjö
• "Чужая и наша война - Сборник стихотворений и песен о военной операции Вооружённых Сил Российской Федерации против международных террористов в Сирийской Арабской Республике” by Сост. В.А. Силкин
• "Why Russians don't get coronavirus” by Albatros
• "Summertime" by JM Coetzee
• "Discovering Judith Shklar sceptical liberalism of fear” by Samantha Ashenden & Andreas Hess

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Geopolitics in the coronavirus era – who will be crowned winner?

Last week’s episode saw our experts dissecting the coronavirus’ implications for Europe. In today's episode, we’re breaking down how the crisis is unfolding in the rest of the world. From the Middle East to Russia and Asia, and all over across the Atlantic – what long-term effects could it have on these regions? And what does it mean for geopolitics, the global system and its institutions?
Our Host Mark Leonard is joined by the ECFR heads of programme Julien Barnes-Dacey, Susi Dennison, Janka Oertel & Nicu Popescu to discuss how the virus is manifesting in these regions, and the implications it carries with it – and it doesn’t look too good. For all the gloominess this podcast will create, our experts recommend turning to poetry for some soul-healing. Recommendations below!

This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2020.

Bookshelf:

• "The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock" by T.S.Elliot
• "Happy Everyday" by Benjamin Zephaniah
   
• "MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed Bin Salman" by Ben Hubbard
• "Sandworm" by Andy Greenberg
• "The Pursuit of Power" by William H. McNeill
• "Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy" by Cathy O'Neil
• "The Psychology of Pandemics. Preparing for the Next Global Outbreak of Infectious Disease" by Steven Taylor
• "The Coronavirus pandemic and the new world it is creating" by Josep Borrell

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Many elephants in the room: the EU and the Turkey, Syria, coronavirus and refugee crises

The European Union faces a multi-crisis situation at the moment. As the conflict in Idlib and the circumstances at the Greek-Turkish border has erupted, Europe seems to have troubles to respond to latest developments in the Syrian war and threats from Turkey.
Host Mark Leonard is joined by ECFR co-chair and former Prime Minister of Sweden, Carl Bildt as well as by the ECFR experts Asli Aydintasbas and Julien Barnes-Dacey to discuss the reasoning behind Ankara’s recent moves and the EU’s reactions. How to avoid a 2015-like situation but without tossing its own values and human rights out off the window? And how to deal with the other seats of fire within the Union itself?

This podcast was recorded on 12 March 2020.

Further reading:
- Syrian voices: Where next for European policy?

Bookshelf:
• The Anarchy by William Dalrymple
• Pax Sinica: implications for the India dawn by Samir Saran and Akhil Deo
• Black Lamb and Grey Falcon by Rebecca West
• Blame Europe, not just Turkey, for migration deal collapse by Kati Piri
• Beyond blackmail at the Greek-Turkish border by Nathalie Tocci
• Clash of Empires: Currencies and Power in a Multipolar World by Charles Gave & Louis-Vincent Gave

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Reshuffling Russia's leadership - old wines in new bottles?

It came as a surprise when Russia’s government resigned just hours after Putin’s announced his plans for a possible referendum of constitutional changes. Host Mark Leonard is joined by Kadri Liik and Gustav Gressel to elaborate on the recent political changes that have happened in the world’ largest country over the course of just the past weeks. What role will Putin play in the future in Russia and on the global stage? Is there a change to recent the relationship between the EU and Moscow? And was does this all mean to Belarus, Ukraine and the NordStream 2 project?

Further read:

• "Will he stay or will he go? Putin’s role will change" by Kadri Liik
• "The last of the offended: Russia’s first post-Putin diplomats" by Kadri Liik

This podcast was recorded on 27 January 2020.

Bookshelf:

• "Brennender Enzian: Die Operationsplanung der NATO für Österreich und Norditalien 1951 bis 1960" by Dieter Krüger
• "Admissions" by Henry Marsh
• "When Breath Becomes Air" by Paul Kalanithi
• "Traditions and Trends in Global Environmental Politics; International Relations and the Earth" ed. by Olaf Corry & Hayley Stevenson

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How to deal with our Western Balkan neighbours?

North Macedonia and Albania wanted to start negotiations with the EU after having been candidate countries since 2005 and 2014. But the enlargement plans seemed to have stalled especially after opposition from France.
Host Mark Leonard is joined by Susi Dennison, José Ignacio Torreblanca and Vessela Tcherneva to get to the bottom of things and the divisions particularly between France and Germany on this issue.

The podcast as recorded on 17 October 2019.

Bookshelf:

• The Age of Surveillance Capitalism" by Shoshana Zuboff
• "Spring" by Ali Smith
• "The light that failed" by Ivan Krastev & Stephen Holmes
• "State of the Union" Miniseries on BBC Two

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