New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs.
Immanuel Giel via Wikicommons
Europeans remain unwilling to renew their thinking on nuclear deterrence, despite growing strategic instability. Their stated goal of “strategic autonomy” will remain an empty phrase until they engage seriously on this matter.
This intellectual under-investment looks set to continue despite: a revived debate “German bomb” debate; a new Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons; and the collapse of the INF treaty.
Attitudes to nuclear deterrence differ radically from country to country – something which any new engagement on the nuclear dimension will have to contend with. And, while many governments and their voting publics are aligned in attitudes, in some crucial players like Germany the government and public are at loggerheads.
No European initiative to declare strategic nuclear autonomy is yet practicable but a strategy to hedge for future uncertainties is available.
As a first step, the UK and France should convert the idea of a European deterrent from mere notion into credible offer, by thickening their bilateral nuclear cooperation and sending growing signals that indicate their readiness to protect others.
LA(phot) Mez Merrill/MOD
The EU Coalition Explorer shows the potential for future coalition building between the EU member states.
Great power competition is increasingly shaping Europeans’ security environment, while other security threats are also on the rise, from terrorism and cyber attacks to climate change.
An ECFR guide to the key disputes threatening to spark a wider Middle Eastern war
This interactive web project charts the constellation of political players as Palestinians approach a period of political change. Over 100 pen portraits reveal new insights into the personalities and power structures that will shape the future of Palestinian politics.
European cohesion is bouncing back after crisis years. The EU Cohesion Monitor presents new insights on cohesion as an underestimated source of strength and collective action in the EU.
Edited by Ulrike Esther Franke, Manuel Lafont Rapnouil & Susi Dennison
A critical mass of countries agree on the need for more flexible cooperation, but what could it look like?
Pixabay / PIRO4D
European leaders are underestimating the danger that Trump presents to the transatlantic alliance and assuming too much continuity in the event of a Clinton presidency.
What role does Russia play in the breakaway regions of Eastern Europe?
In Libya there are very few truly national actors, the vast majority are local players. This guide explains who the players are and what they control.
In the midst of a Schengen crisis, how do Europe's member states see the future of Europe's visa-free travel area?
Locked in a shadowy life between war and peace, "grey zones" now litter the map of Eastern Europe
Creative Commons by Minamie
Following high level ministerial meetings on Ukraine, ECFR's Wider Europe team report on the implementation the Minsk agreement
Creative Commons, UNICEF Ukraine
Indians are many, as are their demands, aspirations, and ideas