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What a Corbyn government could mean for the Middle East (Commentary)
Tim Springett - 10 December 2019
Dramatic shifts are on the horizon for British policy on Israel-Palestine and Saudi Arabia, should Corbyn win power this week.
After the Iran protests: How Europe can keep diplomacy alive (Commentary)
Ellie Geranmayeh - 10 December 2019
Washington will use the recent unrest to argue against Europe engaging with Tehran. Europeans, led by Emmanuel Macron, must lead the efforts for détente.
Iran: Calculating the cost of US sanctions
Over a year into the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, the re-imposition of sanctions have not only placed in jeopardy the Iran nuclear deal, but also hit the Iranian economy.
The panel consisting of Esfandyar Batmanghelidj(Founder, Bourse & Bazaar), David Ramin Jalilvand(CEO, Orient Matters), Tara Sepheri Far(Iran Researcher, Human Rights Watch and chaired by Ellie Geranmayeh (Deputy Head of the MENA Programme, ECFR) looked at all the costs associated with the US sanctions policy including the impact on ordinary Iranians, the Iranian leadership and how this ties into the recent wave of protests across the country.
The event on 3rd December considered the impact of the US sanctions on trade between Europe and Iran, particularly in the humanitarian sector.Recorded on 3 December 2019 in Berlin.
EU support for Lebanon: If not now, when? (Commentary)
René Wildangel - 29 November 2019
The Lebanese desire for change is not going to go away. The EU should place itself at the heart of smoothing this transition.
Italy’s Libyan conundrum: The risks of short-term thinking (Commentary)
Arturo Varvelli and Matteo Villa - 26 November 2019
By prioritising short-term gains in irregular migration and energy security, Italy and the EU have helped create an unsustainable security and political situation in Libya.
Open letter: Call for a managed return of ISIS foreign fighters (Commentary)
- 26 November 2019
A number of ECFR Council Members urge European governments to immediately begin a programme of managed repatriation of ISIS foreign fighters in Syria.
Germany’s quiet leadership on the Libyan war (Commentary)
René Wildangel & Tarek Megerisi - 20 November 2019
Although Germany’s mediation role in the Libyan conflict has received relatively little attention so far, this might change if its initiative leads to a peace conference – or, alternatively, a collapse of the political process.
Sudan’s chance for democracy (Commentary)
Jean-Baptiste Gallopin - 15 November 2019
EU support for Sudan’s new prime minister is welcome in addressing the urgent challenges of the country’s political transition. But it will take more than economic reform to bring peace and stability to Sudan.
Yemen - Seizing the moment of oppurtunity?
Recording of the Lunch Discussion analysing Yemen's role in the current Gulf crisis and how recent regional developments will have an impact on the UN-coordinated peace process.
Almost a year after the widely praised UN-sponsored Stockholm Agreement, there have been significant changes in the Yemeni war but peace appears no nearer. Focus has shifted away from the Hodeida front, leading to the UAE’s military disengagement from Yemen, and leaving Saudi Arabia in sole charge of the war at a time when finding an appropriate response to the September attacks on ARAMCO remains its priority. Within Yemen itself, in recent months, military action and negotiations have concentrated on the summer’s developments in the South, and Saudi attempts to solve the impasse created by southern separatist takeover of Aden, revealing serious differences between the two main members of the Saudi-led coalition.
Our speakers addressed the role Yemen plays in the overall Gulf crisis, including Gulf States perspectives resulting from US volatility, recent and potential developments in the UN-coordinated peace process and the implications of recent internal events in the country.
Recorded on 14 November 2019.
Iran & the US escalation game - What Europe can do?
In this episode, live from Brussels, Ellie Geranmayeh is standing in for our host Mark Leonard to discuss Iran’s further withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear Agreement.
After the Iran Strategy Meeting meeting, she met with Hossein Mousavian (Princeton University), Ilan Goldenberg (Center for a New American Security) and Nasser Hadian (University of Teheran) to analyse the responses coming from the US and European governments, in particular from France. By marking the 40th anniversary of the Iran Hostage Crisis, they look back on how this has shaped the Iran-US relations in the past 4 years. Moreover, after one year, how has the re-imposition of the US sanction impacted Iran domestically?This podcast was recorded on 6 November 2019.
Bookshelf:
- "The United States Overthrew Iran’s Last Democratic Leader" by Roham Alvandi & Mark J. Gasiorowski
- "U.S. Maximum Pressure Meets Iranian Maximum Pressure" by International Crisis Group
- HBO Series “Our boys”
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Sacred struggles: How Islam shapes politics in Mali
by Andrew Lebovich - 01st November, 2019
Religious issues and leadership play an increasingly important role in Mali, but international actors are ill-equipped to understand and analyse this.
PDFBeyond good and evil: Why Europe should bring ISIS foreign fighters home
by Anthony Dworkin - 25th October, 2019
EU member states have failed to come up with a coherent policy on how to handle the hundreds of their citizens having travelled to join ISIS in Syria.
PDFChina’s great game in the Middle East
by Camille Lons (project editor), Jonathan Fulton, Degang Sun, Naser Al-Tamimi - 21st October, 2019
Europeans should monitor China’s influence on regional stability and political dynamics, especially in relation to surveillance technology and arms sales
PDFMeeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
by Ellie Geranmayeh, Manuel Lafont Rapnouil - 25th June, 2019
The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy and begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions
PDFSaudi First: How hyper-nationalism is transforming Saudi Arabia
by Eman Alhussein - 19th June, 2019
Saudi Arabia is embracing a new nationalism that is transforming domestic politics and the country’s foreign policy
PDF
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What a Corbyn government could mean for the Middle East (Commentary)
Tim Springett - 10 December 2019
Dramatic shifts are on the horizon for British policy on Israel-Palestine and Saudi Arabia, should Corbyn win power this week.
After the Iran protests: How Europe can keep diplomacy alive (Commentary)
Ellie Geranmayeh - 10 December 2019
Washington will use the recent unrest to argue against Europe engaging with Tehran. Europeans, led by Emmanuel Macron, must lead the efforts for détente.
EU support for Lebanon: If not now, when? (Commentary)
René Wildangel - 29 November 2019
The Lebanese desire for change is not going to go away. The EU should place itself at the heart of smoothing this transition.
Italy’s Libyan conundrum: The risks of short-term thinking (Commentary)
Arturo Varvelli and Matteo Villa - 26 November 2019
By prioritising short-term gains in irregular migration and energy security, Italy and the EU have helped create an unsustainable security and political situation in Libya.
Open letter: Call for a managed return of ISIS foreign fighters (Commentary)
- 26 November 2019
A number of ECFR Council Members urge European governments to immediately begin a programme of managed repatriation of ISIS foreign fighters in Syria.
Germany’s quiet leadership on the Libyan war (Commentary)
René Wildangel & Tarek Megerisi - 20 November 2019
Although Germany’s mediation role in the Libyan conflict has received relatively little attention so far, this might change if its initiative leads to a peace conference – or, alternatively, a collapse of the political process.
Sudan’s chance for democracy (Commentary)
Jean-Baptiste Gallopin - 15 November 2019
EU support for Sudan’s new prime minister is welcome in addressing the urgent challenges of the country’s political transition. But it will take more than economic reform to bring peace and stability to Sudan.
4 ways Europeans should respond to the Lebanon and Iraq protests (Commentary)
Julien Barnes-Dacey - 08 November 2019
Europeans can help the Lebanese and Iraqi people achieve their reform goals. Here’s how.
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Upcoming events
Past events
EU Differentiation and the Push for Israeli-Palestinian Peace: What Can Italy Do?
Rome - 22 Nov 19
Hugh Lovatt will present the findings of ECFR’s new Differentiation Tracker which analyses over 260 bilateral agreements with Israel signed by the EU, the EU’s 28 member states, and Norway
Comment l’islam façonne la politique au Mali
Paris - 20 Nov 19
Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à un Black Coffee Morning en présence de Andrew Lebovich et Jacques Maire.
The War in Yemen: prospects for peace?
London - 14 Nov 19
A Lunch Discussion on Yemen's role in the current Gulf crisis
Israeli Foreign Policy in a Changing World
London - 07 Nov 19
A breakfast discussion on Israeli foreign policy under Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu
Repatriating the children of ISIS members: the need for a pan-European effort
London - 06 Nov 19
An off-the-record discussion on the need for a pan-European effort for repatriating the children of ISIS members
Trump’s pull out: What next for Syria and what next for European Policy?
Berlin - 31 Oct 19
A panel discussion on the effects of the withdrawal of American troops from Syria and the EUs possibilities with regards to reacting to the ongoing crisis.
UNRWA im Krisenmodus: Risiken und Herausforderungen für Deutschland und die EU
Berlin - 24 Oct 19
Diskussionsrunde in Kooperation mit der SWP zur Krise der UNRWA.
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Iran: Calculating the cost of US sanctions
Over a year into the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, the re-imposition of sanctions have not only placed in jeopardy the Iran nuclear deal, but also hit the Iranian economy.
The panel consisting of Esfandyar Batmanghelidj(Founder, Bourse & Bazaar), David Ramin Jalilvand(CEO, Orient Matters), Tara Sepheri Far(Iran Researcher, Human Rights Watch and chaired by Ellie Geranmayeh (Deputy Head of the MENA Programme, ECFR) looked at all the costs associated with the US sanctions policy including the impact on ordinary Iranians, the Iranian leadership and how this ties into the recent wave of protests across the country.
The event on 3rd December considered the impact of the US sanctions on trade between Europe and Iran, particularly in the humanitarian sector.Recorded on 3 December 2019 in Berlin.
Yemen - Seizing the moment of oppurtunity?
Recording of the Lunch Discussion analysing Yemen's role in the current Gulf crisis and how recent regional developments will have an impact on the UN-coordinated peace process.
Almost a year after the widely praised UN-sponsored Stockholm Agreement, there have been significant changes in the Yemeni war but peace appears no nearer. Focus has shifted away from the Hodeida front, leading to the UAE’s military disengagement from Yemen, and leaving Saudi Arabia in sole charge of the war at a time when finding an appropriate response to the September attacks on ARAMCO remains its priority. Within Yemen itself, in recent months, military action and negotiations have concentrated on the summer’s developments in the South, and Saudi attempts to solve the impasse created by southern separatist takeover of Aden, revealing serious differences between the two main members of the Saudi-led coalition.
Our speakers addressed the role Yemen plays in the overall Gulf crisis, including Gulf States perspectives resulting from US volatility, recent and potential developments in the UN-coordinated peace process and the implications of recent internal events in the country.
Recorded on 14 November 2019.
Iran & the US escalation game - What Europe can do?
In this episode, live from Brussels, Ellie Geranmayeh is standing in for our host Mark Leonard to discuss Iran’s further withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear Agreement.
After the Iran Strategy Meeting meeting, she met with Hossein Mousavian (Princeton University), Ilan Goldenberg (Center for a New American Security) and Nasser Hadian (University of Teheran) to analyse the responses coming from the US and European governments, in particular from France. By marking the 40th anniversary of the Iran Hostage Crisis, they look back on how this has shaped the Iran-US relations in the past 4 years. Moreover, after one year, how has the re-imposition of the US sanction impacted Iran domestically?This podcast was recorded on 6 November 2019.
Bookshelf:
- "The United States Overthrew Iran’s Last Democratic Leader" by Roham Alvandi & Mark J. Gasiorowski
- "U.S. Maximum Pressure Meets Iranian Maximum Pressure" by International Crisis Group
- HBO Series “Our boys”
After Baghdadi is before Baghdadi: How the West still has to fight ISIS
How will IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s killing impact ISIS as a terror organisation and the situation in Syria? Host Mark Leonard is joined by Anthony Dworkin and Asli Aydıntaşbaş to analyse the current events and political implications for Syria’s neighbouring countries, the US and the EU. As the European Union has failed to come up with a coherent policy on how to handle their citizens who travelled to join ISIS, they argue it would still be best, to bring them home and to try them there. But how could the EU member states go ahead with the process?
Further read: "Beyond good and evil: Why Europe should bring ISIS foreign fighters home" by Anthony Dworkin
The podcast was recorded on 30 October 2019.
Bookshelf:
- "Sweet Caress" by William Boyd
- "They will have to die now" by James Verini
- "The Topeka School" by Ben Lerner
- "Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell
Europe with no cards to play: Erdoğan, Trump, and Europe's weaknesses
Turkey's offensive into northeast Syria is moving at an unprecedented pace with grave consequences. Europe's utter irrelevance in the face of US withdrawal from the Turkish/Syrian border has been thrown in to stark light, particularly as it fails to take responsibility for European Isis members in the region. Europes weakness on migration and the refugee crisis as a whole has also been highlighted. What can and should Europe do at this crisis point? As events unfold, Asli Aydıntaşbaş, senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe programme joins host Mark Leonard from Turkey. Mark is also joined by head of ECFR's MENA programme, Julien Barnes-Dacey. Jeremy Shapiro, our research director, provides insight into Trump and Erdoğan's relationship breakdown and what US foreign policy under Trump may continue to look like.
This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2019.
Bookshelf:
"The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East, 1914-1920" By Eugene Rogan
"The Noise of Time" by Julien Barnes
"Chimera" by Alexandros Yannis
Details of the text message sent by a No.10 source to the SpectatorMeddling or Bargaining? - Emmanuel Macron's Iran Initiative
This week, ECFR director Mark Leonard discusses with experts Ellie Geranmayeh and Julien Barnes-Dacey the French president Emmanuel Macron's bold initiative: Europeans are now to explore a credit line for Iran to entice the sanctions-battered country to keep abiding by an international nuclear deal. But the US and president Trump are sceptical.
Bookshelf:
- "Crashed" by Adam Tooze
- "21 Lessons for the 21st Century" by Yuval Harari
- "Eric Hobsbawm: A Life in History" by Richard J. Evans
The podcast was recorded on 6 September 2019.
Towards a new Saudi hyper-nationalism?
Le podcast de notre discussion du mardi 9 juillet « Vers un nouvel hyper-nationalisme saoudien ? », en présence de Eman Al-Hussein, chercheuse associée à l’ECFR, de Fatiha Dazi-Heni, chercheuse à l'Institut de recherche stratégique de l'École militaire (IRSEM)et de Camille Lons coordinatrice du programme Moyen-Orient Afrique du Nord de l’ECFR.
Quelle issue pour la situation en Libye ?
Podcast de notre BCM du 5 mai « Quelle issue pour la situation en Libye ? » en présence de Tarek Megerisi, chercheur au programme MENA de l’ECFR, Mary Fitzgerald, chercheuse et consultante indépendante et Virginie Collombier, professeure à l’Institut universitaire européen (IUE).
Video: Video: The Middle East’s new battlelines
ECFR - 03 May 2019
ECFR’s New Battlelines Project maps Iran’s coalition of allies, regional influence and the counter-coalition that has formed to oppose them.
Le retour des combattants terroristes étrangers dans l’Union Européenne
Podcast de notre discussion du 28 mars « Le retour des combattants terroristes étrangers dans l’Union Européenne » en présence de Marc Hecker, chercheur au Centre des études de sécurité de l’IFRI, Sharon Weill, chercheuse à l'École des affaires internationales (PSIA) de Science Po, Anthony Dworkin, chercheur au programme MENA de l’ECFR et Manuel Lafont Rapnouil, directeur du bureau de Paris de l’ECFR.
Protests in Algeria: A fifth term for Bouteflika?
Mark Leonard speaks with Andrew Lebovich, Anthony Dworkin and Chloe Teevan, about what the demonstrators want, and EU-Algeria relations.
Bookshelf:
La Martingale Algérienne, Réflexions sur une crise by Abderrahmane Hadj-Nacer
A History of Algeria by James McDougall
Algiers, Third World Capital: Freedom Fighters, Revolutionaries, Black Panthers by Elaine Mokhtefi
The Battlefield: Algeria 1988-2002, Studies in a Broken Polity by Hugh Roberts
Protests and the ailing president: Algeria's political crisis by Andrew Lebovich
Renewing Europe by Emmanuel Macron
Why did Iran's foreign minister resign?
Mark Leonard speaks with Ellie Geranmayeh and Dr Kayhan Barzegar about Mohammad Javad Zarif’s resignation and the current political situation in Iran. The podcast was recorded on 27 February 2019.
Bookshelf:
Becoming by Michelle Obama
Reading Lolita from Tehran by Azar Nafisi
Let the swords encircle me by Scott Peterson
Films:
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ISPI Journal
05th December, 2019
Julien Barnes-Dacey's article on the reconstruction of Syria and the role for external players
Altreconomia
05th December, 2019
Anthony Dworkin and his publication on repatriation of ISIS foreign fighters quoted.
BBC
01st December, 2019
Ellie Geranmayeh quoted on BBC on the British government's relations with Iran.
France 24
27th November, 2019
Andrew Lebovich quoted on the difficulty of military control in the Sahel.
War on the Rocks
18th November, 2019
Jeremy Shapiro and Aaron Stein's piece on Syria, Trump and Erdogan.
The New York Times
17th November, 2019
Anthony Dworkin comments on the repatriation of ISIS foreign fighters.