EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY SCORECARD 2016

Peacekeeping

6 - Somalia

Grade: B
Unity 4/5
Resources 4/5
Strategy 3/5
Impact 2/5
Total 13/20
Scorecard 2012: B+ (14/20)
Scorecard 2013: B+ (15/20)
Scorecard 2014: B+ (14/20)
Scorecard 2015: A- (16/20)

Europe’s contributions to security in Somalia are underpinning the country’s gradual return to stability

Somalia made unsteady progress towards national elections slated for 2016. However, the president predicted that full-scale elections are unlikely to be feasible in the coming year, and there is no political agreement on exactly what form the process should take.

While the EU-funded African Union (AU) stabilisation force in the country (AMISOM) kept up pressure on the al-Shabaab Islamist rebels, the group remained able to mount terror attacks in the capital, Mogadishu. It also carried out raids in Kenya, including an attack on a university that killed 147 in April.

In June, al-Shabaab killed over 30 AU soldiers in an offensive near Mogadishu. Although the AU does not release full casualty figures, it continues to sustain high fatalities. However, the AU and UN expanded their presence more widely in Somalia. There is evidence that the national army, which is trained by an EU mission, is gradually growing more capable, although concerns remain about its human rights record.

The UK invested heavily in UN efforts to mediate the crisis (the former and current UN special representatives in Mogadishu are both British) and London guides the EU response to Somalia more generally. Offshore, Germany, Italy and Spain have sustained the EU’s anti-piracy Operation Atalanta off the Somali coast, which contributed to an almost complete halt in hijackings in 2015.

Overall, the EU’s direct and indirect contributions to Somali security continued to underpin the country’s gradual return to stability in 2015. There were questions over Somalia’s alleged misuse of EU funds given to AMISOM, and the European Commission announced a 20 percent cut in its funding to AMISOM personnel, starting in January 2016. Other donors, including China and various Arab governments, offered additional assistance to the AU and the Somali national army, potentially reducing the long-term financial burden on the EU, but also decreasing its leverage.