European Council on Foreign Relations
Israel

ISRAEL - PALESTINE

TWO-STATE STRESS TEST

SUMMARIES

Territory

Current trends in settlement and outposts expansion, growth of settler population, eviction of Palestinians and demolitions of Palestinian property, lack of freedom of movement and access to Area C show an entrenchment of the occupation which is still reversible but only with high political and financial effort.

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Jerusalem

Expanding Israeli presence and high restrictions on Palestinian activity in East Jerusalem hamper the implementation of the two-state solution but are still reversible in the foreseeable future.

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Diplomacy

Current status of negotiations and of international involvement somewhat sustains the two-state solution, although change is proceeding slowly and is in no way stable.

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Security

Levels of violence and transfers to the PA of the security control are still detrimental to the implementation of the two-state solution, although they can be reversed in the presence of strong political willingness on the part of Israel.

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The Palestinian debate

While concrete steps toward national reconciliation are still lacking, Palestinian public opinion is increasingly less hopeful and supportive of the two-state solution.

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Refugees

While not usually at the heart of the public conversation, the refugee issue strains the prospects for a two-state solution also in light of the sensitiveness of the issue to both Palestinian and Israeli public opinion.

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The Israeli debate

While Israeli public opinion is still generically supportive of the two-state solution, few key policymakers are on record supporting it and it is generally not on top of the agenda

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Palestine