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No silver ballot: The problems with a Donbas referendum (Commentary)
Carl Bildt - 01 August 2018
The war in Donbas is Europe's worst active conflict - a referendum would not help
Summer series: Military and security dimensions of European sovereignty
Mark Leonard speaks with Tomas Valasek and Nick Witney about what the real military dependence of Europeans on America looks like and what is possible within the existing security budget. The podcast was recorded on 26 July 2018.
Destination unknown: The EU’s many-faceted migration fears (Commentary)
Pawel Zerka - 31 July 2018
As our new Security Scorecard shows, Europeans have diverging perceptions of security challenges facing them - however, all but one EU governments see uncontrolled migration as a national security threat.
Summer series: Economics of European sovereignty
Mark Leonard speaks with Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram Wolff about the economics of European sovereignty in a new world disorder. What are Europe’s vulnerabilities, where is it not sovereign? The podcast was recorded on the 26 July 2018.
The “more Europe” core four (Commentary)
Josef Janning - 26 July 2018
New ECFR research reveals the Franco-German tandem has a pair of outriders supporting it. But Europe-wide drive for deeper integration is lacking
The nightmare of the dark: The security fears that keep Europeans awake at night
by Pawel Zerka & Susi Dennison & Ulrike Esther Franke - 23rd July, 2018
Great power competition is increasingly shaping Europeans’ security environment, while other security threats are also on the rise, from terrorism and cyber attacks to climate change.
Donald Trump, Master Strategist or Master of Disaster?
This week, Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro discuss how the Chinese view Trump, fresh from Mark's trip to China, and how the Big Lebowski explains the Helsinki Summit.
Bookshelf:
François Godement:
Trump cannot bring Europe and China together
The Trump opportunity: Chinese perceptions of the US administrationDoreen Baingana: Tongues of fire. (Forthcoming)
Kori Schake & Jeremy Shapiro: How the Big Lebowski Explains the Helsinki Summit and the International Order
TV stand:
Bobby Kennedy for President
The Big LebowskiTell us what's on your bookshelf, and why! Each episode, Mark Leonard will pick the most interesting ones to present. To submit, write to mark.leonard@ecfr.eu
NATO, Helsinki Gipfel & der deutsche Verteidigungshaushalt
Die erste Folge „Sicherheitshalber“ – der neue Podcast zur sicherheitspolitischen Lage in Deutschland, Europa und der Welt. Thomas Wiegold, Frank Sauer, Carlo Masala und Ulrike Franke beginnen gleich mit den ganz großen Themen: Es geht um den NATO Gipfel, das Helsinki-Treffen zwischen Putin und Trump sowie um das berühmt-berüchtigte 2%-Ziel und den deutschen Verteidigungshaushalt.
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Erwähnte Literatur:Claudia Major, Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz, Alicia von Voss - Background paper: What NATO's 2% target means for European defence budgets in 2024
buff.ly/2zSCO1JSusi Dennison, Ulrike Esther Franke, Paweł Zerka – The Nightmare of the Dark. The security fears that keep Europeans awake at night
buff.ly/2mlfmRo
The power of the blacklist: The European Parliament’s proposed Magnitsky Act (Commentary)
Clara Portela - 19 July 2018
Sergei Magnitsky's death inspired the US to enact a law blacklisting individuals and seizing their assets. The EU is jumping on the bandwagon.
Londongrad and beyond: UK foreign policy and the fight against corruption (Commentary)
Chris Raggett - 19 July 2018
The UK’s flawed anti-corruption regime has an impact on its global role. A new round of reforms could help strengthen the rule of law at home and abroad.
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No middle ground: Moving on from the crypto wars
by Stefan Soesanto - 05th July, 2018
The ‘second crypto war’ is in full swing; European governments need to stop trying to defeat encryption and get more sophisticated themselves instead.
PDF
The Trump opportunity: Chinese perceptions of the US administration
by Camille Boullenois, Jiakun Jack Zhang, Melanie Hart, Blaine Johnson, Earl Wang - 20th June, 2018
Four views from our authors on Chinese and Taiwanese views of the roots of Trump's strategy and trade policy, and Chinese blind spots
PDF.jpg "Pic: By The White House from Washington, DC (21587440_1434135893340806_7127041855563357278_o) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Donald_J._Trump_addresses_the_72nd_Session_of_the_United_Nations_General_Assem - CC0 1.0 - https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/")
Can Europe save the world order?
by Anthony Dworkin & Mark Leonard - 24th May, 2018
The rules-based international order is under threat. The EU should place its defence at the centre of its global strategy.
PDF
Winning the normative war with Russia: An EU-Russia Power Audit
by Kadri Liik - 21st May, 2018
The path to winning the normative war will not go so much through countering Russia as through improving Europe’s resilience and reinvigorating its model
PDF
The Way Back: Brain Drain and Prosperity in the Western Balkans
by Alida Vracic - 09th May, 2018
The EU should do more to promote circular migration as part of their ongoing pursuit of European integration.
PDF
Separation anxiety: European influence at the UN after Brexit
by Richard Gowan - 08th May, 2018
Brexit has the potential to upset European coordination on development and human rights across the UN system.
PDF
Blue China: Navigating the Maritime Silk Road to Europe
by Mathieu Duchâtel and Alexandre Sheldon Duplaix - 23rd April, 2018
China’s Maritime Silk Road project is affecting Europe in vital areas of interest like maritime trade, shipbuilding, and the global reach of the Chinese navy.
PDF
The Young and the Restful: Why young Germans have no vision for Europe
by Ulrike Esther Franke - 17th April, 2018
Polls and interviews conducted for the paper indicate that German millennials are surprisingly conservative and liable to status quo bias.
PDF
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The overconfident new president: Austria’s coalition-building challenges (Commentary)
Josef Janning - 16 August 2018
Austria has few potential coalition partners who share its European policy priorities
Are spheres of influence still in? The EU and external security (Commentary)
Pawel Zerka - 10 August 2018
The security perceptions scorecard highlights the EU's ability and willingness to act as a security provider, depending on the region
Sahel or high water: Mali’s political fatalism (Commentary)
Andrew Lebovich, Gregory Mann - 09 August 2018
Mali's presidential election will determine the country's future path either toward stability or a return to violence
Europe’s China vetoes (Commentary)
Mathieu Duchâtel & Angela Stanzel - 08 August 2018
France, Germany, Italy, and the UK are strengthening their economic defences against China. Will more follow?
The roots of coalitions: Like-mindedness among EU member states (Commentary)
Josef Janning - 07 August 2018
The EU28 survey explores Europe’s five power couples and potential strong bilateral partnerships
The pastor, the banker, and the irresistible drama in Turkish-US relations (Commentary)
Asli Aydıntaşbaş - 02 August 2018
The Turkish-US relationship is either experiencing its first serious fissure since 1975, or just another bump in the road. No one can be sure.
Mimicking membership: London’s need for a new coalition-building strategy (Commentary)
Almut Möller - 01 August 2018
New data show who in the EU is disappointed by the UK, and which common interests are worth fighting for pre-Brexit
No silver ballot: The problems with a Donbas referendum (Commentary)
Carl Bildt - 01 August 2018
The war in Donbas is Europe's worst active conflict - a referendum would not help
Summer series: European strategic autonomy
Mark Leonard speaks with Bastian Giegerich, Director of Defence and Military Analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, about the three baskets that form strategic autonomy: decision-making, capabilities and defence industrial capacity. The podcast was recorded on 27 July 2018.
Summer series: Political and strategic dimensions of European sovereignty
Mark Leonard speaks with Francois Godement and Jeremy Shapiro about what kind of leverage Europe can have over America and other great powers. And should Europe behave differently in institutions such as G7 and UN? The podcast was recorded on 26 July 2018.
Bewaffnungsfähige Drohnen, die neue KdB, und Atomwaffen
„Sicherheitshalber“ – der neue Podcast zur sicherheitspolitischen Lage in Deutschland, Europa und der Welt – ist zurück mit Folge 2. Diesmal diskutieren Thomas Wiegold, Frank Sauer, Carlo Masala und Ulrike Franke folgende Themen: Wie steht es mit der Debatte um die Beschaffung bewaffnungsfähiger Drohnen für die Bundeswehr? Was sagt uns die neue “Konzeption der Bundeswehr” (KdB), insbesondere mit Blick auf die deutsche Teilnahme an sog. “Ad-hoc-Koalitionen”? Und zu guter Letzt (Achtung Sommerloch!): Braucht Deutschland Atomwaffen? (Spoiler: nein!)
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Erwähnte Literatur und Dokumente:
Thema 1: Drohnen für die Bundeswehr
Ulrike Franke 2018: Killerroboter? Es geht auch anders, in: Die Zeit, 14. April 2018.
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2018-04/kampfdrohnen-luftwaffe-spd-union-debatte
Thomas Wiegold & Kai Biermann 2015: Drohnen: Chancen und Gefahren einer neuen Technik, Ch. Links Verlag.
https://www.amazon.de/Drohnen-Chancen-Gefahren-einer-Technik/dp/3861538180
Grunts in the Sky (20min-Dokumentation zur A-10 Warthog und Luftnahunterstützung), in: https://www.realcleardefense.com/2018/01/05/039grunts_in_the_sky039_299417.html
Beauchamp, Zack, and Julian Savulescu. “Robot Guardians: Teleoperated Combat Vehicles in Humanitarian Military Intervention.” In Killing by Remote Control: The Ethics of an Unmanned Military. Edited by Bradley Jay Strawser, 106–125. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013.
Thema 2: Konzeption der Bundeswehr
Bundesministerium der Verteidigung 2018: Die Konzeption der Bundeswehr
Carlo Masala 2018: Weltunordnung: Die globalen Krisen und das Versagen des Westens, C.H. Beck, 2. Aufl.
https://www.amazon.de/dp/B079T4R5L2/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_i_H0yABbD345674
Thema 3: Deutsche Nuklearwaffen?
Christian Hacke 2018: Der Elefant im Raum, in: Welt am Sonntag. 29.7.2018, S. 4.
Wolfgang Ischinger 2018: Ein atomares Deutschland wäre verhängnisvoll, in: Die Welt. 30.07.2018
Wissenschaftlicher Dienst des Bundestags 2017: Völkerrechtliche Verpflichtungen Deutschlands beim Umgang mit Kernwaffen: Deutsche und europäische Ko-Finanzierung ausländischer Nuklearwaffenpotentiale, Sachstand WD 2 - 3000 - 013/17
https://www.bundestag.de/blob/513080/c9a903735d5ea334181c2f946d2cf8a2/wd-2-013-17-pdf-data.pdf
Gunther Hellmann, Carlo Masala, Frank Sauer und Reinhard Wolf 2016: Deutschland braucht keine Atomwaffen, in: SPIEGEL ONLINE. 11.12.2016
Ulrich Kühn/Tristan Volpe 2017: Keine Atombombe, Bitte. Why Germany Should Not Go Nuclear, in: Foreign Affairs: July/August, 103–112.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/germany/2017-06-13/keine-atombombe-bitte
Maximilian Terhalle, “Fuer eine europäische Atommacht, Frankfurter Allgemeine 13.11.2017 https://twitter.com/IRmt74/status/1024318775045369856
Sauer, Frank 2015: Atomic Anxiety. Deterrence, Taboo and the Non-Use of U.S. Nuclear Weapons, Palgrave Macmillan, London.
Summer series: Military and security dimensions of European sovereignty
Mark Leonard speaks with Tomas Valasek and Nick Witney about what the real military dependence of Europeans on America looks like and what is possible within the existing security budget. The podcast was recorded on 26 July 2018.
Summer series: Economics of European sovereignty
Mark Leonard speaks with Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram Wolff about the economics of European sovereignty in a new world disorder. What are Europe’s vulnerabilities, where is it not sovereign? The podcast was recorded on the 26 July 2018.
Donald Trump, Master Strategist or Master of Disaster?
This week, Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro discuss how the Chinese view Trump, fresh from Mark's trip to China, and how the Big Lebowski explains the Helsinki Summit.
Bookshelf:
François Godement:
Trump cannot bring Europe and China together
The Trump opportunity: Chinese perceptions of the US administrationDoreen Baingana: Tongues of fire. (Forthcoming)
Kori Schake & Jeremy Shapiro: How the Big Lebowski Explains the Helsinki Summit and the International Order
TV stand:
Bobby Kennedy for President
The Big LebowskiTell us what's on your bookshelf, and why! Each episode, Mark Leonard will pick the most interesting ones to present. To submit, write to mark.leonard@ecfr.eu
NATO, Helsinki Gipfel & der deutsche Verteidigungshaushalt
Die erste Folge „Sicherheitshalber“ – der neue Podcast zur sicherheitspolitischen Lage in Deutschland, Europa und der Welt. Thomas Wiegold, Frank Sauer, Carlo Masala und Ulrike Franke beginnen gleich mit den ganz großen Themen: Es geht um den NATO Gipfel, das Helsinki-Treffen zwischen Putin und Trump sowie um das berühmt-berüchtigte 2%-Ziel und den deutschen Verteidigungshaushalt.
***
Erwähnte Literatur:Claudia Major, Christian Mölling, Torben Schütz, Alicia von Voss - Background paper: What NATO's 2% target means for European defence budgets in 2024
buff.ly/2zSCO1JSusi Dennison, Ulrike Esther Franke, Paweł Zerka – The Nightmare of the Dark. The security fears that keep Europeans awake at night
buff.ly/2mlfmRo
How are Europeans seeing Trump’s performance at the NATO summit?
Jeremy Shapiro covers for Mark Leonard and speaks with Ulrike Franke, Manuel Lafont Rapnouil and Piotr Buras, about what this means and what the Trump-Putin meeting might bring. The podcast was recorded on 12 July 2018.
Bookshelf:
Esprit Journal
Communique from NATO Summit 2018
The Swan King: Ludwig 2. of Bavaria by Christopher McIntosh
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Foreign Policy
17th August, 2018
Ulrike Franke discusses consumer drone regulation, in light of the Maduro attack
El País
12th August, 2018
Mark Leonard on how the EU can no longer afford to defer to America´s foreign-policy establishment.
El Español
09th August, 2018
Ulrike Franke on Germany's nuclear deterrence and its ability to secure its interests
CBC Radio
07th August, 2018
Ulrike Franke speaks with As It Happens about why turning a commercial drone into weapon is 'not rocket science.'
Bloomberg
02nd August, 2018
Asli Aydintasbas comments on the current state of the US-Turkey relationship
Finnish Journal of Foreign Affairs
01st August, 2018
Teresa Coratella on current Italian government European policy ahead of 2019 European elections
El Español
01st August, 2018
Susi Dennison is quoted on the European extreme right and Steve Bannon.
Al Jazeera
27th July, 2018
Ellie Geranmayeh in a panel discussion on Donald Trump's foreign policy and transatlantic relations.
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Upcoming events
There are no upcoming events
Past events
New Europe: What Shape Will it Take?
Warsaw - 08 Jun 18
The European Union has entered one of the crucial moments in its history.
International Relations in the Digital Age: Drones and automated warfare: threat to global security?
London - 21 May 18
A new series of seminars on the effect of the Digital Revolution on International Relations
« The Great Power Game at the UN in the age of Trump, Xi, Putin and Brexit »
Paris - 03 May 18
Nous avons le plaisir de vous inviter à un Black Coffee Morning (BCM) avec Richard Gowan, senior policy fellow à l’ECFR et Janaïna Herrera, du Centre d'analyse, de prévision et de stratégie (CAPS).
Cyber Warfare and the Future of Security
London - 19 Apr 18
A new series of seminars on the effect of the Digital Revolution on International Relations
L’Europe qui protège en 2018 : qui, quoi et comment ?
Paris - 29 Mar 18
Conférence publique avec Clément Beaune, François Godement et Mark Leonard.
Digital Money and the Future of Globalisation
London - 22 Mar 18
A new series of seminars on the effect of the Digital Revolution on International Relations
Strategic autonomy for the EU? How Europe can better care for its security
Warsaw - 15 Mar 18
What is the meaning of Euroepan strategic autonomy and can PESCO help achieve it?