The European Council on Foreign Relations
Middle East and North Africa

C+

2011 was a tumultuous year for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The Arab Awakening – the spontaneous popular uprising that began in Tunisia and eventually toppled four dictators, and that has forced reform in a number of authoritarian regimes – took the West, including Europe, completely by surprise. Everyone was slow to react. In fact, on 1 January – just a few days before Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled by plane – the French foreign minister, Michèle Alliot-Marie, offered French knowhow to help Tunisian authorities manage riots. One month later, just before the “day of rage” that sparked the Libyan revolution, European officials were placidly discussing co-operation on migration and borders with the Gaddafi regime in Brussels. Indeed, the most awkward problem for Europe was that years of co-operation with autocratic regimes throughout the region left it lacking credibility in the midst of popular calls for democracy. The EU therefore faced the difficult task of transforming its longstanding policies in order to show meaningful solidarity with the democratic aspirations of people of the region, while safeguarding ongoing European concerns across a set of urgent and complex situations.

At first, it failed. Member states such as France and Italy found it difficult to abandon their former allies and interests. Europe therefore did extremely badly in the first weeks of the crisis – although the US hardly did better. But when Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak also fell in mid-February and the significance of the situation became clear, France, Germany and in particular the UK decided to put their weight behind democratic transition. However, even then, although the EU as a whole made a number of coherent communications and took some strong positions and decisive action – for example, sanctions on Libya and Syria – unity remained precarious. [...]

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Regional Issues - Grade: B-
Category Unity Resources Outcome Total Grade
53 - Rule of law, democracy and human rights in the MENA region 3/5 2/5 5/10 10/20 C+
54 – Reforming financial support to the MENA region 4/5 3/5 5/10 12/20 B-

 

North Africa - Grade: B-
Category Unity Resources Outcome Total Grade
55 - The Tunisian revolution 3/5 3/5 8/10 14/20 B+
56 - The Egyptian revolution 3/5 2/5 5/10 10/20 C+
57 - The Libyan uprising 3/5 5/5 7/10 15/20 B+
58 - Relations with Algeria and Morocco 3/5 2/5 5/10 10/20 C+

 

Levant - Grade: C
Category Unity Resources Outcome Total Grade
59 - The Syrian uprising 3/5 3/5 2/10 8/20 C
60 - State building in Palestine 4/5 3/5 2/10 9/20 C+
61 - Middle East Peace Process and Palestinian statehood 3/5 2/5 2/10 7/20 C-

 

Gulf - Grade: C+
Category Unity Resources Outcome Total Grade
62 - Iran 4/5 3/5 4/10 11/20 B-
63 - The Yemen uprising 4/5 2/5 5/10 11/20 B-
64 - The Gulf Cooperation Council 4/5 1/5 5/10 10/20 C+
65 - Iraq 3/5 2/5 4/10 9/20 C+

 



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