The European Council on Foreign Relations

Ten trends for 2012

2011-12-21T09:56:20+00:00

After a frenetic 2011, what are the big trends that are going to shape Europe and the wider world in 2012? Here are ten that ECFR experts think are likely - and one widely predicted trend that we don't think will happen...

The hobbled summit

2011-12-14T16:34:58+00:00

As the EU and Russia hold their latest summit neither side can boast that they are in the best of health. But the summit is important for symbolic reasons - and there are several practical issues that they can address at the same time.

Russia’s post-BRIC election

2011-12-08T09:38:01+00:00

Russia in 2010 was as corrupt as Papua New Guinea, had the property rights of Kenya and was as competitive as Sri Lanka. As Putin readies himself to retake the presidency he must also work out how to deal with a country that is now firmly post-BRIC.

The beginning of the end for Putin?

2011-12-06T10:25:22+00:00

Russia's election results are bad news for Putin for two reasons. Firstly United Russia did badly despite the election being biased in its favour, and secondly it shows that Putin can no longer rely on an apathetic population.

How the eurozone crisis affects EU power

2011-11-25T13:26:32+00:00

The economic crisis has huge implications for EU foreign policy. There is less time for it, less money available, and Europe's ability to project soft power is in a coma.

Mother Russia, Father Putin

2011-11-15T09:46:14+00:00

Russia's foreign policy over the coming decade will bear the signature of Vladimir Putin, as Russia seeks new alliances and international clout. The price that Russia is likely to pay is international isolation

Why enlargement-lite will not save the Arab Spring

2011-10-25T09:30:08+00:00

The European Union has a vital role to play in helping consolidate the transitions of the Arab Spring. But first they need to rethink their approach and develop a new foreign policy for the Southern neighbourhood: Enlargement lite will not work.

The Tymoshenko verdict

2011-10-11T14:01:26+00:00

The EU's credibility is at stake over the sentencing of Yuliya Tymoshenko to seven years imprisonment. Unless there are signals from Kiev that the sentence will be reviewed or repealled, the EU must act.

Same Putin, different Russia

2011-10-07T09:59:32+00:00

It looks like Vladimir Putin is heading back towards the Russian presidency that he first took over in December 1999. Putin's politics have changed little since then, but Russia is now a very different place and the Russians themselves want very different things.

Europe’s multipolar neighbourhood

2011-10-04T08:03:42+00:00

The upheavels in North Africa are further evidence that the EU's neighbourhood has fundamentally changed, both to the south and to the east. In response, the EU needs to develop a real foreign policy to deal with this increasingly competitive region.

What does Putin 3.0 mean for Russia and the EU?

2011-09-27T12:38:58+00:00

This weekend's announcement that Vladimir Putin will stand for the Russian presidency next year is a clear defeat both for Russia's liberals and for the EU's policy of tacitly supporting Medvedev. What will Putin's third term mean for relations between Moscow and Brussels?

Latvia’s unnoticed revolution: analysing the elections

2011-09-22T09:47:04+00:00

After a deep recession, an impressive recovery and years of fractious relations with its Russian-speaking minority, Latvia might be on the brink of breaking free from the problems that have dogged its politics since independence. The country's elections last week might have gone largely unnoticed in the outside world, but they could trigger a mini-revolution.

The protracted death of democratic Albania

2011-09-08T07:53:43+00:00

Albania is politically paralysed by a stand-off between prime minister and opposition. The EU must act decisively to prevent the country becoming a small enclave dominated by illiberal politics and bureaucratic dysfunctionality.

Happy Birthday, Ukraine? - Wilson

2011-08-23T07:46:30+00:00

On 24th August 1991, Ukraine declared itself independent. Andrew Wilson, who was in Kiev learning Ukrainian at the time, assesses where the country stands two decades on.

Russia’s non-election

2011-07-18T09:11:51+00:00

With Russia's next presidential election scheduled for next March, the important question for Europe is not "More Medvedev or Putin 2.0?" It is whether its giant Eastern neighbour can modernise, and avert the threat of “Brezhnevisation” – political stagnation without economic reform.

Interview with Russian opposition leader Vladimir Milov

2011-06-28T09:58:29+00:00

Ben Judah talks to the co-chairman of the Party of People’s Freedom, Vladimir Milov, about forthcoming parliamentary elections in Russia, the possible return of Putin as president in 2012, the North Caucasus and the role of the European Union in supporting opposition parties.

Turkey: the predictable elections that matter

2011-06-10T09:58:31+00:00

The outcome of Sunday's elections might be a foregone conclusion, but Europe should still pay close attention. There might be no change in government, but the vote will affect how an increasingly influential Turkey deals with its neighbourhood, and with the EU.

The EU-Russia summit: what really matters?

2011-06-06T13:11:48+00:00

The atmosphere between the EU and Russia has improved remarkably over the last couple of years; but - ahead of this week's summit with Russia - the EU is struggling to turn good atmospherics into tangible progress in areas that really matter.

Eastern European questions, not lessons, for the Arab revolutions

2011-05-09T08:21:45+00:00

Dimitar Bechev reflects on the Sofia Platform, a major conference hosted by ECFR and the Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs last week, which brought Europe and the Middle East together to discuss the Arab Spring, with fascinating consequences.

Putin is not Superman

2011-05-06T14:07:05+00:00

The Russian presidential elections are less than a year away it is by no means clear who will be the Kremlin's candidate. We should not be surprised by tensions at the top in Moscow; Putin is not as powerful as the image the West – and many Russians – have bought into.

The Scramble for Europe

2011-04-18T08:47:24+00:00

The European Union’s introspection in world affairs, and its shrinking ability to influence the outside world, does not mean that the outside world will leave it alone. Rising powers might soon be racing to invest in Europe, and shape its politics to suit their needs.

More for More in the Neighbourhood

2011-04-05T15:57:48+00:00

'More for more', a central plank of the EU's updated neighbourhood policy, is a laudable concept. But it is difficult to define, let alone to implement. What really is more, and how do we get it from our neighbours?

The EU and the Southern neighbourhood in 2010

2011-04-01T12:26:04+00:00

European countries are playing a central role in the Libyan intervention, and the EU is looking to help the transitions in Tunisia and Egypt. But before Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire, setting off the sequence of protests, how well did Europe perform when dealing with its southern neighbourhood last year?

Europe as a world power

2011-03-30T12:30:16+00:00

Agreement over Europe's performance is not the aim of ECFR's European Foreign Policy Scorecard. The aim is to encourage serious debate about the goals, tools, resources, difficult trade offs and moral dilemmas of Europe's foreign policy - even if that means that readers strongly disagree with our conclusions.

Britain on Russia: Adrift in Europe

2011-02-14T11:38:45+00:00

As Sergei Lavrov visits London, Britain needs to rethink its approach to Russia if it is to benefit from strong economic ties with Moscow. This need not mean that it has to compromise on its tough stance on human rights issues, provided it tries to push for a more united EU voice on Russia.

Stop Albania’s Self-Destruction

2011-01-28T10:17:20+00:00

Albania is teetering on the brink of catastrophe, fuelled by the rivalry between prime minister and opposition leader. The EU must make clear to them that it will not tolerate the use of violence, or the destruction of Albania's institutions.

Who needs the BBC World Service?

2011-01-27T12:20:55+00:00

The announcement of cuts to BBC World Service language sections in the wider european neighbourhood is very bad news for strong, independent journalism in the region. But the development of new media technologies mean good journalism should no longer have to rely upon organisations like the BBC.

Turkey and the EU: An Alternative Approach

2011-01-25T09:10:54+00:00

The establishment of an effective foreign policy with Turkey would get the EEAS off to a flying start, but progress on Turkey's negotiations for EU membership has slowed to a crawl and the political atmosphere is souring. To improve it, the EU and Turkey should establish a strategic dialogue.

Where next for Europe on Belarus?

2011-01-17T09:59:12+00:00

It is too simplistic to say that the regime in Belarus has turned its back on the EU: it cannot afford to. Europe must react to the post-election crackdown, but new blanket sanctions would only reduce its leverage. Instead, Europe must learn to empower those in Minsk who favour close links with the West.

Democracy vs Reformism in the Eastern Neighbourhood

2011-01-11T13:35:31+00:00

During the 1990s, democracy and reformism in Central and Eastern Europe tended to go hand in hand. In recent years, however, the picture in the EU's Eastern neighbourhood has become less clear. Ukraine and Georgia have shown how it is possible to have one without the other.