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Ukraine Decides: January 17 - First presidential elections since the Orange Revolution. ECFR expert available to comment

Press advisory

Ukraine Decides: January 17 - First presidential elections since the Orange Revolution. ECFR expert available to comment.

On 17 January Ukraine holds its first presidential election since 2004's Orange Revolution.

ECFR's Andrew Wilson will be in Ukraine for the elections, and is available for interviews and comment.

For all press enquiries, Andrew Wilson can be reached at:

• Telephone: +44 (0) 7920 421066
• Email: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Andrew Wilson believes that while Ukrainians will not spill onto the streets in a repeat of 2004, the elections are important because:

• The election will be close, and a disputed result is possible once again.
• Since the Orange Revolution Ukraine has slid back towards Russia, which has exerted its pressure through gas pipelines and growing penetration of the Ukrainian economy. The EU and the West are no longer seen as welcoming, and both election frontrunners, Viktor Yanukovych and Yuliya Tymoshenko, have been competing for Moscow's favour.
• Ukraine's recession has been one of the worst in Europe, with GDP down 15% in 2009 and the government emptying the coffers before the election.  
• The election may not have the drama of 2004; but Ukraine desperately needs to restore good government after years of policy gridlock.
• Either side might stage destabilisations to swing the second round. A confrontation with Russia in Crimea - with its combustible mix of organised crime, dispossessed Crimean Tatars and Russia's military presence - would pose a security threat to the whole of the EU's eastern neighbourhood.

For more, go to Andrew Wilson's blog from Ukraine - Ukraine Decides - on our website.

You can listen to a podcast interview with Andrew Wilson talking about the elections here. You can also subscribe to ECFR podcasts via iTunes or podhoster.com.

Background:

• The first round of voting takes place on 17^th January. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, a second round will be held three weeks later, on 7^th February.
• The front runners are: Viktor Yanukovych, who was denied the presidency last time by the Orange Revolution after being accused of stealing the 2004 election; and Yuliya Tymoshenko, the current prime minister and the public face of the Orange Revolution.
• The current president, Viktor Yushchenko, who was poisoned before the 2004 elections before being carried to power by the Orange Revolution, is trailing badly.

For any further information, please contact ECFR's press office at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or on +44 (0) 20 7031 1623.

Andrew Wilson co-authored The limits of enlargement-lite: European and Russian power in the troubled neighbourhood (published by ECFR) which argued that the EU urgently needs to rethink its approach to the eastern neighbourhood - including Ukraine - or face a ring of failing state. He is also the author of the books The Ukrainians and Ukraine's Orange Revolution.