Press

RBC Daily (Russia)

November 8, 2007

CURBING RUSSIA

Advice for Brussels from the European Council on Foreign Relations

The European Union needs a new model for relations with Russia

By Alina Lyubimskaya

A new report from the European Council on Foreign Relations emphasizes the need for the European Union to work out a common strategy for dealing with Moscow. In objective terms, Europe is stronger than Russia - but Russia plays on the EU's internal differences to keep European countries divided.

"A Power Audit of EU-Russia Relations," a report by Mark Leonard and Nicu Popescu for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), argues that the European Union's 1990s strategy with regard to Russia failed and became outdated. Europe offered economic aid to Russia in the 1990s, and promoted democracy and Western values. These days, however, Russia is an authoritarian country under a "sovereign democracy" cover, with a government that ignores international and domestic laws, not to mention European democratic standards. The report also maintains that Moscow is trying to manipulate Brussels in promoting Russia's own interests.

The ECFR report lists eight "hard power" methods used by Russia, including food import blockades, oil and gas embargoes, transport and communications blockades, different energy prices, and non-withdrawal of troops from other countries. It lists ten "soft power" instruments, including the media, economic growth, open labor markets, and exporting "sovereign democracy." The report concludes:
"Russia's new challenge to the EU runs deeper than the threat of energy cut-offs or blockages in the UN. It is setting itself up as an ideological alternative to the EU with a different approach to sovereignty, power and world order."

The report notes that it would be easy for the EU to contain Russia if European countries can work out a common strategy. The EU's economy is 15 times the size of Russia's, its population is three-and-a-half times the size of Russia's, and its total military spending is ten times bigger. Unfortunately, there is discord among EU members over various issues, and this plays into Russia's hands.

The European Union is split into two camps promoting different

approaches: advocates of "soft containment" and advocates of Russia's "creeping integration" into the European family. The first group includes Poland and Latvia, described as "New Cold Warriors."
Britain, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden, and Romania are described as "Frosty Pragmatists" who criticize Russia but do business with it. Greece and Cyprus are described as "Trojan Horses" for siding with Moscow on numerous issues. Germany, France, Italy, and Spain are Russia's "Strategic Partners," maintaining a "special relationship" with the Kremlin even if this undermines EU interests.

Russian observers point out that the idea of a common strategy is actually doomed to failure. "It's impossible. Each EU country is torn between the efforts to retain its national identity and dismantle statehood in the process of integration. And no country is willing to compromise its national interests," says Valentin Fyodorov, assistant director of the Europe Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Fyodorov maintains that the ECFR report over- emphasizes semi-mythical external threats to the EU instead of concentrating on real internal threats. The European Union faces two real problems more serious than any threat Russia may pose. First, the problem of coexistence (integration is in jeopardy). Second, the problem of population (Europe's white European population is shrinking, swamped by immigrants from Asia and Africa).

Translated by A. Ignatkin for Johnson's Russia List.