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Can the EU win the peace in Georgia?

Latest report urges EU to engage with its Eastern neighbourhood to prevent conflicts

24 August, 2008 - In the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia conflict, a new report by Nicu Popescu, Mark Leonard and Andrew Wilson of the European Council on Foreign Relations will urge the 27-member European Union to stand united and act to prevent wider political fallout on the continent.

The report, to be released tomorrow, will appear as the EU is getting ready to discuss options for a peacekeeping contribution for Georgia. The text is embargoed until Monday, 25 August 00.01 CET, and can already be viewed at: http://ecfr.eu/page/-/documents/ECFR-Georgia-Policy-Brief.pdf.

"The EU should help forge a positive peace from a war which threatens the foundations of the European security order, and should actively engage with its Eastern neighbourhood to resolve 'frozen conflicts' and avert new crises," the report's authors Nicu Popescu, Mark Leonard and Andrew Wilson argue.

The Russia-Georgia conflict has sent shockwaves across the post-Soviet space but short-term sanctions and punitive action against Russia would be counterproductive, the report says. Instead, the EU should follow up the six-point peace agreement with a comprehensive regional strategy for Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus.

The EU can still "win the peace" by pushing for an international peacekeeping mandate in Georgia's secessionist regions, and by taking the lead in the post-conflict reconstruction effort.

The EU should also strengthen its membership pledge toward Ukraine and Moldova, and reach an internal agreement on how to move forward on NATO Membership Action Plans for Georgia and Ukraine by the December NATO summit.

The report makes recommendations to EU governments in three key areas.

1. Need for a comprehensive assistance package for Georgia

EU governments should push for an international peacekeeping mandate to supplement Russian and Georgian peacekeepers in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and contribute several hundred soldiers.

The EU should campaign for a United Nations-led assessment mission to catalogue the extent of damage, and co-sponsor a donor conference to fund the reconstruction effort. The EU should also dispatch a civilian reconstruction mission, in support of the humanitarian, reconstruction and political agenda.

In addition, the EU should underscore its support for international law and push for an international commission of inquiry to establish a full account of responsibility. The commission could be modelled on the Independent International Commission on Kosovo and should report to the UN Secretary General.

The EU should also speed up negotiations with Georgia on a free trade agreement, agree on a visa facilitation deal, and offer European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) benefits - such as funding, trade and infrastructure projects - to the secessionist regions, too.

2. Engage with the Eastern neighborhood

After the Kremlin's demonstration that "all options are on the table" in the post-Soviet space, the EU should express solidarity with countries that are faced with challenges to their territorial integrity. The EU should develop tools for a stronger regional engagement and overhaul the ENP to include more short-term measures, including more democratisation assistance.

The EU-27 is also urged to agree a common position on the kind of legal precedent that Kosovo's declared independence means. "Rather than claiming - as they have done - that the situation in Kosovo does not create a precedent, EU leaders need to be explicit about what precedent it actually sets," the report says.

3. Pre-empt a repeat in Ukraine

The EU will have to pay particular attention to developments in Ukraine and should recognize Ukraine's right to join the EU at the next EU-Ukraine summit in September. It should also take up the obligation to assist Ukraine in case of challenges to its territorial integrity and sovereignty, and offer Ukraine full access to the four freedoms as well as a road-map for visa-free travel.

NOTES TO EDITORS

1. The report entitled "Can the EU win the peace in Georgia?" was written by Nicu Popescu, Mark Leonard and Andrew Wilson of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Like all ECFR publications, the paper represents the views of its authors, not the collective position of ECFR's council members.

2. For interviews, please contact Nicu Popescu (.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 00 4477 9531 2467) or Andrew Wilson (.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), 00 4479 2042 1066). For other press queries, please contact Zsofia Szilagyi at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), or call 00 4478 7677 5034.

3. Launched on 2 October 2007, the European Council on Foreign Relations is a pan-European initiative for research and advocacy, co-chaired by Martti Ahtisaari, Joschka Fischer and Mabel van Oranje. With offices in five EU capitals, its mission is to analyse the EU's foreign policy performance and to promote a more integrated EU foreign policy.

4. To sign up for ECFR press releases, go to: http://www.ecfr.eu/content/media/

European Council on Foreign Relations - http://www.ecfr.eu