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ECFR expert calls on EU to set tests for next Russian president

New report calls on EU to set tests for next Russian president

ECFR analyst Andrew Wilson provides insight into Russian succession politics and urges EU leaders to propose tests for Dmitry Medvedev

28 February, 2008 - Instead of rushing to embrace Dmitry Medvedev - Russia's likely new president after the 2 March elections - European Union leaders should agree on a joint Russia strategy and set a series of tests for Putin's successor.

In a new report, Wilson argues that while Medvedev might appear a business-friendly, liberal reformer, he remains the product of a political system that is shaped solely by elite interests and 'political technologists'.

The report can be accessed here: http://ecfr.eu/page/-/documents/ECFR-Policy-Brief-Medvedev.pdf

"A repeat of the experience of 2000, when European leaders rushed to establish their own 'personal relationships' with Putin, would further hinder the development of a common EU policy on Russia," Wilson argues in the report.

The EU has a small window of opportunity to develop a unified strategy toward Russia, and to establish new foundations for its bilateral relationship, based on mutual respect for the rule of law. "We should take Medvedev, the lawyer, at his word when he talks about the importance of strengthening the rule of law in Russia," the report says.

Wilson agues that EU leaders should put the following tests to Medvedev to see whether he is a willing interlocutor:

• Russia should agree to negotiations with the EU and key energy transit countries (Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia) to resolve open questions regarding supply diversity, transit fees and pipeline theft;
• On Kosovo, Russia should accept the EU's rule of law mission and the setting up of the International Civilian Office, UNMIK's successor;
• On Iran, the EU should encourage Russia to support the so-called 'E 3 plus 3' process (with France, Germany and the UK, plus China, Russia and the US) and keep the Iran dossier with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The report also recommends that the European Union restart negotiations on the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement (PCA) and include another country, possibly Poland, into trilateral summits between Russia, Germany and France to emphasise the importance of a collective EU approach.

In addition, it proposes that inter-governmental organizations, such as the Council of Europe and the OSCE, should strive to keep Russia within their ranks but should strengthen mechanisms which can put pressure on Russia to meet its commitments.

Finally, the report compares the Medvedev succession with that of Putin in 2000, and reveals the full context of Medvedev's rise to the top, including listing 8 discarded scenarios that have emerged in "Operation Successor 2.0".

QUOTES FROM THE REPORT

Will Medvedev act like a democrat?

"No matter what Medvedev's intention or beliefs are, he will scarcely find it easy to break away from the forces that created him. Although contemporary Russian politics is often described as a modern form of Tsarism - dominated by the personality of the individual at the top - the form of the authoritarian system which has evolved in the past decade is likely to endure, notwithstanding changes in leadership."

How will the proposed co-habitation with Putin work?

"Balancing the system was the key reason for choosing Medvedev, not any sudden desire to reverse the course Russia has taken since 2003. 'Protecting' the equilibrium Medvedev is supposed to embody may well turn out to be a key reason for Putin to hang around."

Will Medvedev eventually be his own man?

"Medvedev's early period in office will be dominated by clan conflict. He may have his own 'Yukos moment' in time [changing elite power relations by direct intervention] - but, as was the case for Putin, he will first have to accommodate the outgoing elite's strongest group, the Sechin clan."

Will there be a rapproachment between Russia and the West?

"The main reason why there can be no return to the friendly relations of the 1990s was Ukraine's Orange Revolution in late 2004 - an event whose political impact was comparable to that of 9/11 in the US."

Download the full report.

NOTES TO EDITORS

1. The report entitled "Meeting Medvedev: The politics of the Putin succession", was written by Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Like all ECFR publications, the paper represents the views of its author, not the collective position of ECFR or its founding members.

2. For interviews with Andrew Wilson, please write to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or call 00 4475 0656 2968. For all other press queries, please contact Zsofia Szilagyi, communications officer at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), or call 00 4478 7677 5034.

3. Launched on 2 October 2007, the European Council on Foreign Relations is a pan-European initiative for research and advocacy, co-chaired by Martti Ahtisaari, Joschka Fischer and Mabel van Oranje. With offices in five EU capitals, its mission is to analyse the EU's foreign policy performance and to promote a more integrated EU foreign policy.