European and Russian power in the troubled neighbourhood

Published on 16 June 2009

A complacent strategy focusing on slow change rather than pressing crises is losing the EU its battle with Russia for influence in the eastern neighbourhood, according to the authors of a new report by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The authors predict dire consequences for the six eastern neighbours of the EU - Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia - as well as for the EU itself, unless EU leaders improve their act and stop placing a lazy bet on a strategy of "enlargement-lite" while ignoring that the six countries are deep in the worst political and economic crisis since their independence. This irresponsible lack of attention means Europe risks another "August surprise" with Russia, like last year's Georgian war - this time over new elections in Moldova or another gas crisis in Ukraine. Yet the EU continues to pursue a strategy of incremental, long-term reform in the region, as most recently with the "Eastern Partnership" launched in May.

The report, entitled The limits of enlargement-lite: European and Russian power in the troubled neighbourhood, is based on extensive work by researchers mapping EU and Russian power in each of the six neighbourhood countries. The authors, Andrew Wilson and Nicu Popescu, argue that the EU urgently needs to rethink its approach to eastern Europe or face a ring of failing states and an increasingly active Russia rebuilding its sphere of influence.

For the full text of the report: http://ecfr.eu/page/-/documents/ECFR_eastern_neighbourhood_report.pdf

Read our press release: http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/ecfr_eastern_neighbourhood_wilson_popescu_press_release/

You can download the executive summary of this report in Bulgarian, French, German, Italian and Polish. 

This report represents the views of its authors rather than the collective view of ECFR

Press clippings

Putin moves to heal rift with Belarus, Financial Times, 16 June 2009

Moldova dissolves parliament, Financial Times, 16 June 2009

Russia-Belarus Relations Sour Over Milk Ban, TIME, 16 June 2009

Budweiser Lite and Yushchenko-Light, Kyiv Post, 16 June 2009

Russia Set For A Long ‘Continuation War' With Georgia, Radio Free Europe 17 June 2009

In 'Crisis Of Multiple Crises,' Is EU Doing Too Little To Help Eastern Neighbors?, Radio Free Europe, 17 June 2009

Rusia inghite Europa de Est, Ziua 17 June 2009

Rusia si "surpriza din august", Ziua 17 June 2009

Will warm weather stiffen European spines?, The Economist 18 June 2009

Wanted: a new way of talking to Kiev, Moscow News, 18 June 2009 

Belarus, Russia solve milk row, other problems loom, Forbes, 20 June 2009

Lukashenko pursues old tactics, not new strategy, Deutsche Welle, 22 June 2009

Sweden Urged to Approach Troubled EU Eastern Neighbors, Epoch Times, 6 July 2009 

Nie bójmy się promowania naszych wartości, Monitor Unii Europejskiej, July/August 2009

Stormy outlook over the Black Sea, The Guardian, 6 August 2009

Op-eds

The EU must reinvigorate its Eastern policy by Andrew Wilson, Progress, 19 June 2009

A Swedish-led listening tour of the East by Nicu Popescu, EUObserver, 22 June 2009

The summer of eastern Europe's discontent , by Andrew Wilson and Nicu Popescu, Wall Street Journal, 14 July 2009  

Go east, Sweden, by Andrew Wilson and Nicu Popescu, European Voice, 31 July 2009 

Website commentaries

Reinvigorating the EU's Eastern Policy by Andrew Wilson & Nicu Popescu, 16 June 2009

Elections in Moldova. Again, by Nicu Popescu, 27 July 2009

Moldova: Europe's poorest pawn, by Andrew Wilson, 29 July 200

Moldova's surprise election results, by Andrew Wilson, 30 July 2009