European Council on Foreign Relations

Ukraine decides: What can Tymoshenko do now?

By - 08 Feb 10

Now the Real Votes are in...

The morning after the night before, the story in Ukraine has changed a little, as it so often does - but not as dramatically as it did overnight after the first round. The streets of Kiev are quiet - there is no sign of any popular protest at all equivalent to the crowds of 2004. Tymoshenko was relatively restrained at her press conference last night - she didn't repeat her call for a rerun of the Orange Revolution that she made last Thursday. The popular mood just isn't there. Though Yanukovych's Party of the Regions now has a big ‘tent city' outside the headquarters of the Central Election Commission.

But Tymoshenko has called another press conference for 1 pm Kiev time, just before the OSCE are due to hold their conference at 3. One or two observers from PACE have jumped the gun by saying they saw no evidence of mass fraud.

On the other hand, the overnight count has helped Tymoshenko's cause. With 94.7% of the vote ratified by this morning, the gap was only 2.11% - Yanukovych leads with 48.24%, but Tymoshenko has 46.13%. The gap actually narrowed further either side of breakfast: when only 93% of the votes were counted, the gap had been 2.43%. But at that rate, Tymoshenko won't close the gap. The two slowest reporting regions are Crimea and Luhansk in east Ukraine.

By the end of the day, almost all the votes should be in. Turnout didn't quite reach over 70% - it is estimated at 69.1%, which was only 2.4% up on round one, and therefore another disappointment for Tymoshenko.

This means that the temptation to contest the outcome is still there, but depends on finding convincing evidence of significant fraud. The vote ‘against all' is confirmed at 4.4% and invalid or spoiled ballots at 1.2%. The abstainers did more than apparently defeat Tymoshenko; if Yanukovych wins it will be with less than 50% of the vote - which will be a less than ringing endorsement of his new presidency.

For more...

Read Andrew's previous blog post on the first exit polls

Listen to his special podcast interview with two eminent Ukrainians, Olexiy Haran and Mykola Ryabchuk, here 

For the press...Andrew is available for interviews. Click here for our press advisory.




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