The European Council on Foreign Relations

Where does Russia?s ?sphere of influence? end?

By Vessela Tcherneva - 23 Sep 08


"In Russia, the optimists learn English; the pessimists learn Chinese and the realists learn to operate a Kalashnikov." This joke would have been funny had it not come from Dmitri Rogozin, Russia's ambassador to NATO, in a recent interview to a Bulgarian newspaper.

Weeks after Russia's war with Georgia and days after the announcement of a new ‘spheres of influence' policy by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, Rogozin - a former leader of the nationalist party Rodina (Motherland) and a good friend of indicted Serbian war criminal Ratko Mladic - introduced Bulgarian readers to Russia's new foreign policy doctrine.

Rogozin's interview seemed to carry a clear message to the Bulgarian public: the country belongs to Russia's sphere of influence, and any other club membership - be it NATO or the EU - has been a historical mistake, which would later need to be corrected.

"Bulgaria has abandoned us many times but took the right decision afterwards, when victory has come on our side. Now Bulgaria is again in the wrong camp - NATO. But this is your own mistake and it is up to you to correct it some day."

Meanwhile, he warned, "Romanians, Bulgarians and all others around the Black Sea should be very careful about what they are doing and what they allow others to do in their waters."

He also made clear how this Kremlin agenda was to be implemented.

"There are two elements that will remain unchanged irrespective of what happens," the Russian envoy said. "The discipline in supplying energy to our partners and our readiness to use our missile systems. Both are up and running."

Rogozin's interview was permeated with military machismo even when he discussed the situation of non-Russian minorities: "Minorities are not only a Russian problem - there are Hungarians in Romania, and Turks in Bulgaria. [...] But I would like to clarify something - the reason we intervened in South Ossetia was not only because there were Russians living there. We would defend in the same way every small nation in our region that is threatened by destruction - Jews, Bulgarians, everybody."

Less than a week later, another official, Vladimir Chizhov, Russia's ambassador to the EU, told the Bulgarian National Radio that "some European Council on Foreign Relations" has stolen his term of billing countries as Russia's ‘Trojan horses' in the EU, and that Bulgaria should also be included in the group. (In its Power Audit of EU-Russia Relations, ECFR argued that Cyprus and Greece were already acting in that role for Russia.)

Like his colleague at NATO, Chizhov criticized Bulgaria's membership in the EU and NATO and expressed hope that Sofia would eventually return to the Russian bosom.

"I understand that with European Union membership, and especially with NATO membership, Bulgaria has taken a difficult burden, since these memberships are not always easy. You can go to bed one evening and in the morning you wake up as somebody's military base. But apart from their well-developed sense of humor, Bulgarians have always had enough common sense. And I think it makes perfect sense to continue developing our [bilateral] relationship."

Chizhov also stressed that he expected Bulgaria to block a possible EU decision for sanctions against Russia in the wake of the Georgia war.

The Bulgarian government and President Parvanov - whom Rogozin  called a personal friend - did nothing to react to the above statements by Russia's ambassadors. Instead, Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev met Vladimir Putin in an attempt to highlight what he called "Bulgaria's balanced policy towards Russia."

These days, Bulgarian public opinion surveys show that 66% of Bulgarians consider themselves Russophile - the highest number in Europe - whilst 75% support the EU.

The Bulgarian government has yet to recognize that it cannot be halfway between Brussels and Moscow. Not only because the country has already joined the Western club, but because this time around Russia is unlikely to tolerate such behavior, seeing it not merely as diplomatic legerdemain by a small country, but betrayal by an age-old ally.

Yet, rather than realize how Moscow is trying re-draw Europe's map, pushing its ‘sphere of influence' well into the EU, Bulgarian and European leaders have stayed silent. Whether deliberate or not, their silence sends a clear signal to Moscow: that Russia can bully its neighbours freely, and position itself as an alternative power in the region.

However, it will hardly be in the interest of the European Union - which has been put on the defensive on many other fronts including its neighborhood policy and its common energy strategy, to allow Russia to penetrate the bloc's southern tier.


Vessela Tcherneva is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (www.ecfr.eu).


Comments for this entry are closed.

#1

hm, interesting… was NATO supposed to greet the Russia;s role in Georgia, and Abkhazia with South Ossetia?

nicu | 24 Sep 08, 24 Sep 08 EST | www
#2

Was NATO supposed to greet the Russia;s role in Georgia, and Abkhazia with South Ossetia?

The recent war in Georgia announced the return of Russia as a ruthless power to be reckoned with. More disturbing still, it reminded the world of the return of a system that brutally eliminates those who dare to criticize its policies. The murder of anti-government journalist, Magomed Yevloyev, in Ingushetia by police on Sunday is just the latest indication that the Putin regime doesn’t flinch to eliminate dissent in all of its forms.

But while Russia is brutally annexing its neighbors and still killing its opponents at home, the international community is now witness to the reemergence of a Cold War relic: the Western apologist for Russian aggression once known as the ?useful idiot.?

The term, attributed to Vladimir Lenin, was once applied to those na?ve, (and not so na?ve) ?progressive? Westerners who sought to aid Soviet communism by downplaying ? or flat-out denying ? the evils it entailed. Prominent in their ranks were such luminaries as playwright George Bernard Shaw, New York Times journalist Walter Duranty and British Labor Party leader Arthur Henderson. Although the Soviet government held these sympathizers in contempt, they parroted its propaganda with the enthusiasm of true believers.

Now they?re back.

The current crop of ?useful idiots,? acting as apologists for Vladimir Putin?s recent imperialist aggression in Georgia, is neither so na?ve nor so lowly regarded by the Kremlin. But like their pro-Soviet predecessors, they seek to mask the malice behind the Russian government?s actions, particularly in Georgia. Chief among them is former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. While the current German chancellor, conservative Angela Merkl, has placed herself firmly on Georgia?s side in the conflict, the socialist Schroeder is blaming the small Caucasian nation for a war incited by Moscow.

In a recent interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel, Schroeder shamelessly recited Russia?s talking points. Among other implausible assertions, he claimed that it was Georgia?s invasion of South Ossetia that ?triggered the current armed hostilities? and called Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, ?a gambler.? No mention of the passports that Russia had issued to South Ossetians with the deliberate goal of fomenting political trouble for its despised neighbor.

Instead, Schroeder had only kind words for Russia. The Kremlin, he believes, has no interest in military conflicts and poses no renewed threat to her neighbors. Forget Russia?s two wars in Chechnya, its attempted invasion of Georgia, and its cyber warfare attack against Estonian government computers. Never mind Russia?s suspension of energy deliveries to the Ukraine during a political imbroglio ? such energy embargoes are Russia?s new form of political ultimatum ? and the attempted poisoning of a sitting Ukrainian president, Victor Yuschenko, by the Russian secret police. Instead, Schroeder upbraided Georgia?s Western allies, saying there have been ?serious mistakes made by the West in its Russia policy.? As for Russia, peace is its only interest.

In some significant wars, to be sure, Schroder differs from the useful idiots of old. Soviet apologists of an earlier era acted out of na?vet? or misguided political idealism. By contrast, Schroeder is a true capitalist: His attempt to minimize Russia?s belligerence is fundamentally about money. The former German chancellor has been on Vladimir Putin?s payroll almost since the day he left office in 2005 (and some believe possibly even before). Barely three weeks after his resignation, Schroeder announced that he was going to work for Russia?s Gazprom, the gigantic, state-owned energy company, whose chairman is a former East German Stasi (secret police) officer. The Stasi officer was friendly with Putin when Putin was a KGB operative stationed in East Germany.

Schroeder?s decision to work for an energy corporation shocked his leftist and liberal supporters on both sides of the Atlantic, especially in his own socialist party. Many believed he was arranging his ?personal retirement plan? while still in office, since he had championed in Germany?s parliament the building of a controversial Gazprom pipeline. Due to this cynical opportunism, he has rightly been called Germany?s worst post-war chancellor.

Schroeder is not the only one to receive money for taking pro-Russia positions. According to the Brussels Journal, other influential people abroad, including journalists, who support the Russian government?s line, receive financing from Kremlin coffers. In the Cold War, communist intelligence services called such media supporters in the West ?relay stations,? and it is highly likely some may never have left their old employer?s service.

Of course, some European publications took anti-U.S. or anti-Georgia positions simply due to the widespread dislike of America and its allies. Der Spiegel, for example, claimed America was indirectly responsible for the conflict due to its arming and training of Georgian forces and for supporting Georgia?s membership in NATO.

Scotland?s Sunday Herald was more direct. It called Americans hypocrites for complaining about Russia?s invasion of Georgia when America had invaded Iraq, usurping that nation?s sovereignty. (Never mind that Iraq was a rogue-state dictatorship that routinely flouted its international treaty obligations, while Georgia is a democratic country that has sought to expand its ties to the West.) England?s Guardian went even further, calling the Georgian war ?a tale of US expansion not Russian aggression.? There was no criticism of either Russia or Putin in either story let alone any sympathy for the 100,000 war refugees.

In the United States, a column in The Nation indulged in a Republican conspiracy theory. It blamed Randy Scheunemann, John McCain?s foreign policy advisor, for the war, since he had once been a paid lobbyist for Georgia in Washington. In another conspiracy fantasy worthy of Soviet-era Pravda, a Russian state radio station told listeners that Dick Cheney was responsible for the war as part of a plot to prevent Barack Obama from being elected American president.

Wherever these anti-American, anti-Georgian views surfaced in the West, there was a sense of gloating that an American ally had been so severely defeated. This twisted view is eerily similar to the Left?s state of mind after the fall of Saigon in 1975. And it would most likely have manifested itself again if America had been defeated and humiliated in Iraq.

Despite superficial differences, the useful idiots of Soviet times and today?s apologists for the Kremlin share a similar characteristic: Neither has learned much from history. They also have learned nothing from brave Russian individuals like Yevloyev and fellow murdered journalist Anna Politkovskaya. As it sets its sights on re-conquering the free states on its borders, a neo-imperialist Russia doubtless is counting on it.

Ole Pedersen | Norway | 26 Sep 08, 26 Sep 08 EST | www
#3

Zbigniew Brzezinski had demanded in the 1990th that the U.S. policy towards Eurasia should be designed so that the goal of their global dominance is secured.

That means the isolation and destruction of Russia and prevent the rise of Eurasian powers - including Europe!

Brzeziński: “America is now the only global superpower, and Eurasia is the globe’s central arena. Hence, what happens to the distribution of power on the Eurasian continent will be of decisive importance to America’s global primacy and to America’s historical legacy.” (p.194)

“It follows that America’s primary interest is to help ensure that no single power comes to control this geopolitical space and that the global community has unhindered financial and economic access to it.” (p148)

“That puts a premium on maneuver and manipulation in order to prevent the emergence of a hostile coalition that could eventually seek to challenge America’s primacy…” (p. 198)

http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/archivos_pdf/brzezinsk_thegrandchessboard.pdf

The ideas of Obama Adviser Brzeziński are also represented and implemented by the Neocons: ““The Defense Policy Guidance (DPG) drafted in the early months of 1992 provided a blueprint for maintaining U.S. preeminence, precluding the rise of a great power rival, and shaping the international security order in line with American principles and interests.” - “At present the United States faces no global rival. America?s grand strategy should aim to preserve and extend this advantageous position as far into the future as possible.”
http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf
http://www.newamericancentury.org/statementofprinciples.htm
 
What means this aggressive policy against Russia regarding the missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic?

Both, Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, have an explanation (The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy): This “sort of missile defenses that the United States might plausibly deploy would be valuable primarily in an offensive context, not a defensive one—as an adjunct to a U.S. first-strike capability, not as a standalone shield. If the United States launched a nuclear attack against Russia (or China), the targeted country would be left with a tiny surviving arsenal—if any at all. At that point, even a relatively modest or inefficient missile-defense system might well be enough to protect against any retaliatory strikes, because the devastated enemy would have so few warheads and decoys left.”

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204-p30/keir-a-lieber-daryl-g-press/the-rise-of-u-s-nuclear-primacy.html

And so the Russian reaction to the “Encirclement politics” of the USA and NATO will be understandable and also the Russian action against Georgias.

It is clear that Russia’s encirclement by NATO and the threat of a nuclear first strike by the United States must be answered. We have no reasons to be surprised about it.

Theo Clovjek | Germany | 28 Sep 08, 28 Sep 08 EST
#4

The Bulgarian government now decided to react, two weeks after the Russian statements:

“Deputy Foreign Minister Milen Keremedchiev will meet on Monday forenoon with the Ambassador of Russia to point out to the diplomat that although Bulgaria is in friendly relations with Moscow, it has made its strategic choice by joining NATO and the EU. Keremedchiev announced on Sunday to Dnevnik Daily that he would request a meeting with representatives of the Russian embassy because of the unacceptable statement of Moscow representative of the EU Vladimir Chizhov. The meeting will take place two weeks after Chizhov demonstrated absolute confidence that Bulgaria would impose a veto on any decision by the EU to impose sanctions over Russia because of the conflict with Georgia.

The representative of Russia in Brussels said in an interview for BNR that he hoped the EU common sense would prevail and Bulgaria would not need to block the achievement of a unanimous decision. Before long Chizhov had defined Bulgaria as a Russian Trojan horse in the EU.

I suppose this is a personal opinion, which does not represent the state policy of Russia towards Bulgaria, however, I will ask the Russian diplomats to revise their speeches, including in a personal capacity, said Deputy Minister Keremedchiev. In his words such statements, apart from putting Bulgaria in a difficult situation in the EU, also harm the image of Moscow in the country. The Russian Embassy will have to realize that such interference in the internal affairs of Bulgaria is unacceptable, the diplomat said.”

Vessela | 29 Sep 08, 29 Sep 08 EST
#5

It can not only be the question, “where does Russia?s ?sphere of influence? ends”, it must also be asked, “where has to end the US- ?sphere of influence??
With the global lack of resources and the imperial ambitions of the USA the Monroe doctrine is not only limited to America. The globalized Monroe doctrine (America to the Americans-> the planet to the Americans) can only be achieved with military means and an endless wars. The list of the US-wars and of military interventions to enlarge the sphere of influence is long:

http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/usinterventionism.html

This endless number of wars and the imperial claim have consequences:

“It is the US government which avoids the international jurisdiction, the environment protection, the bioweapon convention and revokes international agreements and arrangements unilaterally. It is the Bush’s administration which limits the freedom rights of own citizens via patriot Act drastically, pokes fear and fright with hypothetical acts of terrorism and thereby it makes the U.S - population to the hostage of her world conquest plans. It’s the USA which develop weapons of mass destruction and have generally started as first ones, atom bombs in Japan, napalm and poisonous defoliants (PCB, Agent Orange und Purple - Anm. Verf.)  in Vietnam. It is the US military, which bombards cities from airy heights, without danger for own life and limb and thus they explain the killing of innocent civilians as “collateral damages”. It is the US jurisdiction which kicks the human dignity with feet if it closes prisoner of war like wild animals in cages and takes them away from ordinary courts;and it is again the US Government, that takes into account preventive strikes and praises them as actions of special humanity.”
Own translation. Source: Rudolf Maresch, Eurasische Gegenmacht
http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/14/14234/1.html

The conclusion is: Tortures, abductions, hijackings, Guantanamo, cluster bombs, depleted uranium ammunition, wedding party as ” collateral damages”, to kill journalists (I remember an Aljazeera - journalist and some othern in Iraq war), deception of the world public (“proofs” before UN - security council for Iraq - war) and so on attests no better morality or ethics and can not be reasons to attack other nations or to blackmail them.

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are founded humanitarian and as defence, however, they are motivated geostrategically. Also the foundation of military bases and the armament of former member states of the USSR serve the geostrategical interests of the USA. NATO and the “coalition of the willing” shall serve these purposes, also the missile defense shield which shall be built up all around Russia.

Georgia was militarily armed by the west, here in particular from the USA with weapons and advisers. Georgia is for the USA an important geostrategical point and the USA will push Georgias into the NATO. The Caucasus promises oil and other resources. It is a central point for the USA, to supervise and hold in chess the Russians, China, Europe and the Islamic Nations - so how Brzinsky and the Neocons suggest it.

So the war Georgias against Ossetia and Abchasia can be interpreted as a test of the Russians. It was led certainly with the knowledge of the USA, and I think, also with US - permission. In respect of this it was a proxy war around the geostrategical sphere of influence. The USA reacted with surprise and “indignation”, when the Russian peacekeeping troops did not make stop at the supervision borders, but with support of further Russian troops threw back the Georgian aggressors.

My prediction:
I think, this test, just as the present failure in Afghanistan and Iraq will strengthen the activities of the USA by global influence in the fight for the resources. In particular they will strengthen the strains to recruit a “coalition of the willing” from the former members of the USSR. They must be ready to armament, ready to war and ready for the US-Market.

Result:
An encirclement of Russia with a “coalition of the willing” ready to war does not help the democratic development in Russia. And it does not help Europe. The action of the USA cannot be in the interest of Europe that wants to live peacefully and in trade relations with its immediate neighbours. Russia is an immediate neighbour. The USA exceeded their limits already

Theo Clovjek | Germany | 03 Oct 08, 03 Oct 08 EST
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