Serbia's European dream lives on - but only just

By Daniel Korski - 04 Feb 08

Boris Tadic, the Western-leaning Serbian President, won his country's presidential election. With the greatest turn-out in decades, Mr. Tadic held off the pro-Russian nationalist Tomislav Nikolic from the Serb Radical Party. A collective sigh of relief can be heard in Brussels. But all is not over yet.

Nearly all of Serbia's elections after the ouster of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000 have been called the country's "most important"; but this election deserved the moniker more than any other. Pitting a pro-European, but corruption-plagued incumbent against a modernized nationalist, the election was a struggle for the country's future orientation.

Mr. Nikolic, whose party was aligned with Slobodan Milosevic in the 1990s, favored closer ties to Russia, Serbia's main ally in opposing independence for Kosovo. Mr. Tadic similarly opposes Kosovo independence, but favors closer links with the West and moves towards membership of the European Union.

Both the European Union and Russia sought to help "their" candidate - the EU with talks of easing the visa regime and Russia with a 500m euros purchase by Gazprom of a majority stake in Serbia's main oil company NIS (although, with NIS valued at 2 billion, the Russians may have clinched the better deal).

In the run-up to the election, polls had put Mr. Nikolic ahead of Mr. Tadic with concerns that the EU's involvement may have inadvertently hurt the President's chances. But in the end, Serbia's 4 million defied Prime Minister Kostunica's campaign against his coalition partner. Mr. Tadic was also helped by the high turnout. Since 2000, elections have seen turnouts under 50%, including in the 2004 presidential election.

Once the hang-overs have subsided and the echo Roma brass bands - a staple item in Serb celebrations - have vanished, work remains. Having opposed the President in the first and second rounds, Prime Minister Kostunica will have to find ways to collaborate with his rival.

This will not be easy. Pro-Western, pro-democratic voters have tired of the corruption in Mr. Tadic's Democratic Party and the President's continuing concessions to the Prime Minister's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS). As Vesna Simic, a Serb journalist, told me: "It is important to understand that the Radicals got a lot of votes and that this is a message to the Democrats that they should do something to make people's living standard better or they will lose next election."

Yet the kind of reforms required to liberalize the economy will be opposed by many who see Russia's purportedly string-free support as an alternative to the EU's reform-laden assistance. The question is therefore: will Mr. Tadic be able - and bold enough - to use his victory to force a change in the government's make-up and programme or will Mr. Kostunica use the narrowness of the poll to threaten to share government with Mr. Nikolic's Serb Radical Party (SRS), as he did very briefly following the 2007 parliamentary elections? It was this ruse, which allowed Mr. Kostunica to trade his party's third-place finish elections into Prime Ministerial power.

Then there is the UN-administered province of Kosovo. With the elections over, Kosovo is now likely to declare independence, supported by the U.S. and the EU. Mr. Tadic's victory would suggest that a small majority of the Serb electorate accepts the inevitably of Kosovo's independence, yet the process will inevitably inflame passions and strengthen Mr. Kostunica's hand. A lot, says Ognyan Minchev, the head of ECFR's Sofia office, will depend on which part of Mr. Kostunica's wins the day, calling the Prime Minister "half pragmatist, half idealistic nationalist."

What should the EU do?

Following the official count, the EU said it "wishes to deepen its relationship with Serbia and to accelerate its progress towards the EU, including candidate status." It expects to sign an interim agreement, offered to Serbia by EU Foreign Minsters on Monday, which would offer economic incentives, easier access for travelers and students to the EU and the eventual prospect of EU membership. Oli Rehn, the EU official in charge of enlargement, is due in Belgrade this week. But any such deal would need the backing of Mr. Kostunica - who is decidedly lukewarm on the EU.

Having seen Mr. Tadic return to the Presidential Palace, the temptation to continue as before is great. But this may be a mistake. As part of a struggle to sign the Serbia-EU agreement, new parliamentary elections should not be ruled out. Elections that may favor of a DDS-SRS coalition.

Therefore, while Kosovo's independence should proceed and pressure for Serbia to comply with its international obligations - notably on cooperation with the Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) - must continue, the EU should build on its late offer and immediately grant visa-free access to the EU, not only for students both also for the elderly voters who make up SRS's ranks. Other policy initiatives should be considered. Failure to do so could make last night's victory short-lived and strengthen Russia's claim to offer a more attractive path for Serbia. As Vesna Simic says: "I really think that EU should do something now in order to stop Serbia becoming a Russian satellite. I don't want to live in country like Belarus."

Comments for this entry are closed.

Daniel-

You seem to think that Tadic is dominant this relationship with Kostunica. But in parliament, where it counts, Kostunica is the only game in town for the DS - it certainly can’t approach the SRS. The DSS program is far more parallel with the SRS’ than with the DS’. The EU and US pressed Tadic to take a disadvantageous deal with Kostunica in the spring, leaving the DSS with the main power ministries - not coincidentally those that would have the responsibility to search for war crimes indictees. In the current coalition, the DSS is top dog. And it will remain so unless it gets stomped in an early election.

I guess the line of reasoning that gives me the most dyspepsia is the attachment to the idea that if we just give Serbia enough goodies, they can be bought off on Kosovo. This is the subtext for the whole EU approach, it seems to me. A similarly unfounded argument is that just moving Serbia (or any other country, for that matter) toward the EU ipso facto reforms them. To quote my ex president, that’s the biggest fairy tale I ever heard.

There’s nothing wrong with visa liberalization or scholarships per se - I actually think it’s a good idea. But it is important that these things be done so as not to create collateral damage next door, in Bosnia, where things are shakier than most folks in Brussels and DC seem to want to accept, and Bosnian Serbs can easily go for Serbia passports.

The Russia factor is also being WAY overblown as a strategic issue for the EU. Russia has leverage because of its seat on the UNSC and Kosovo, and Moscow - as you note - turned that into a sweetheart deal that left Serbian coffers emptier than they need have been. But in terms of actual rivalry in economic terms, Russia just can’t compete. Some EU companies are sure upset at not buying NIS, but while that’s a defeat for some “national champion” firms, it’s not a threat to the EU per se.

Which leads us to the elections you seem to dread. Ultimately, a critical mass of Serbians - more than a hair over 50% - will need to unequivocally support their country’s movement toward the EU’s standards, which will involve some heavy lifting. This election campaign, with Kosovo a dominant theme, muddied the waters on that issue, despite it being presented as a referendum on Europe. What this result says is that a majority of Serbian voters want to move forward - but on Serbia’s terms. Unless the EU is willing to lower its standards to the point where Serbia can dictate its terms (by the way, this is Kostunica’s approach), that’s not good enough.

So by all means come up with creative incentives. But lowering or postponing the EU’s standards on war crimes accountability, for example, will do nothing to bolster the true EU-minded liberals. Such low-balling only helps the Kostunicas in Serbia, for they get to walk away with PfP, the SAA initialing, etc, and say they never had to “betray Serbian dignity” to get them.

Another election is probably what Serbia needs to clarify where the electorate truly is on “the European path.” I suspect most of them remain on the fence.

Ultimately, I think Serbia will come to an internal consensus to join the EU - and do what it takes to get let in. The door is clearly open. But I think it will have to hit the wall again and stall before it gets there. That’s why I think a Nikolic victory would have gotten it there faster that Tadic. It also would have forced the EU to confront reality a bit more honestly - the business as usual approach will remain dominant with Tadic’s win. And I’m pretty sure that will hit its own wall.

Kurt Bassuener | Sarajevo, Bosnia and Hercegovina | 05 Feb 08, 05 Feb 08 EST

Before I comment on Kurt’s post, I thought I’d be interesting to share some of the comments I received from from other analysts (who prefer to remain anonymous).

From Washington, I received the following comment: “The EU?s visa relaxation and assistance are good, but ultimately it is up to Serbia?s leaders. They have a mercantile kleptocracy like Russia, where a few tycoons get rich and buy politicians who get comfortable but a lot of the population is left out. Media doesn?t cross the power-brokers by and large. Hard to see how the EU can change the situation without becoming clear-eyed itself and without Serbia?s internal reformers stepping up.”

Whereas from Belgrade, the following came through: “The EU has really made a mess of things through the blatant interventions in Serbia’s electoral process. The best thing would be for the EU to simply sit back for a while and let things take their course. Brussels needs to accept the fact that no amount of inducements or incentives will make Serbia accept loosing Kosovo. Although polls show 70+% of Serbs favour EU membership, those same polls also show that if forced to choose between the EU and Kosovo, must Serbs will choose Kosovo. The EU needs to come to grips with this fact.”

The sender, a noted Balkans expert, went on to say: “There will be no gov’t cabinet meeting until Monday [11th], which means there will be no signing ceremony on the 7th, as no one is authorised to do so. It also now appears that it will go to the parliament sometime next week. In other words, the SAA-lite is dead.”

When I asked what the EU should do, this was his answer: “The EU needs to stop backing Tadic so desperately. It only hurts democracy in Serbia. We need to disabuse ourselves of the notion that democracy in Serbia and the DS are the same thing. The reason so many people voted for Nikolic has nothing to do with nationalism. Rather, people are disgusted that the democrats have been in power for seven years and nothing has happened. The reform process has led to a falling standard of living, food prices are higher, wages are stagnant, corruption inside the DS has surpassed that of the Milosevic regime. The only reason Tadic won is that people were scared of Nikolic. Keep in mind that Nikolic ran a successful campaign based on an anti-corruption, pro-change, pro-reform, pro-EU, pro-Russia platform. He presented himself as the candidate of change. Tadic won only by scaring the population with nightmare scenarios from the 1990s. The EU’s interventions may only have damged Tadic’s candidacy in the popular mind. The popular dissatisfaction with the DS will continue to rise, and the EU will be ill-advised to continue to support Tadic and the DS at all costs. In a democracy you can’t simply ignor 49% of the electorate and try to marginalise them. Especially when that 49% may turn into 50+% at the next election.”

More to come…

Daniel

Daniel Korski | London | 07 Feb 08, 07 Feb 08 EST

i think it is a mistake of the eu to preannounce the acceptance of the declaration of the independence of the kosovo. eu should be well adviced to keep an independent position. too many mistakes caused by the eu during the balkan conflict between 1991 and 1999 seem to happen again. history always repeats itself. eu should initiated a taylor suited program for the balkan countries. a fast access of all balkan countries in order to become a full eu member could be the best solution. the image of the eu in some of the balkan countries is not the best.

elisabeth mayer | podgorica, budapest, berlin | 11 Feb 08, 11 Feb 08 EST

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