Victors: Merkel and the Liberal Party

It has been a sensationally dull electoral campaign, but the result is anything but. Angela Merkel remains Chancellor, but she can now discard the unloved alliance with the Social Democrats and govern with a conservative-liberal majority which last ruled Germany in the 1990s.

The Free Democrats, who have built most of their electoral appeal on a message of lower taxes, score the best result in their history. The Free Democrats's resounding success is a personal triumph for Guido Westerwelle, their undisputed leader now slated to become Germany's next foreign minister.

But perhaps the most striking result of Sunday's election is the debacle the voters brought on Germany's shell-shocked Social Democrats. Not only has the SPD been ejected from the national government after eleven years in power; they have suffered the worst result in Germany's post-war history and lost a third of the vote they garnered four years ago. Their defeat is partly the consequence of the success of Die Linke, the far-left socialist party who have now establish themselves as a fifth force in German politics;  it is obviously part of a wider European trend making life difficult for traditional left-of-centre parties in many European countries. Whilst the prospect of an alliance between Christian-Democrats and Liberals resting on a solid parliamentary majority should herald four years of political stability in Germany, the success of Die Linke confronts Germany with the prospect of a complex five-party-system where three parties - the SPD, Die Linke and the Greens - vie for the left-of-centre vote.

 As Westerwelle's image and message so far were those of a politician most committed when he addressed economic policy issues, his first steps on the foreign policy stage will be watched with considerable interest.  Historically, the trend across Europe and in the world in the last few decades has been a growing involvement of government leaders in foreign policy issues, leading in some cases to a diminished role for the foreign minister.  Angela Merkel and Guido Westerwelle know each other well from their joint days in opposition during the government of Gerhard Schröder and Joschka Fischer, and their personal chemistry is said to be good. It is unlikely that foreign or European policy issues will lead to frictions within Germany's future coalition. Westerwelle, an avowed fan of US-President Barack Obama and a critical but committed transatlantic, backs the German presence in Afghanistan and has repeatedly affirmed his support for the two main pillars of German foreign policy - the commitment to European integration in close partnership with France and the transatlantic relationship. In a foreign policy speech he gave last May, he explicitly endorsed the principle of continuity in Germany's policy.    

What remains to be seen is whether Westerwelle, a man of great ambition and of considerable authority within his party, will achieve more in the next four years than the competent foreign policy management of his predecessor Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Westerwelle has taken pains in recent months to demonstrate his closeness to his great liberal predecessor Hans-Dietrich Genscher, Germany's hugely influential foreign minister from 1974 to 1992. Genscher helped write history many times and was the catalyst of major breakthroughs in European integration such as the Euro. The four-year-rule of the cumbersome grand coalition in Berlin saw Germany become more inward-looking and more reluctant in exercising European leadership, thus losing some of its influence as the EU's big member state most consistently committed to a stronger Europe.  

The success of his Free Democrats means that Westerwelle has propelled himself from the national onto the European and global stage. His place and prestige there will be largely determined by his ambition and success in building on the work of Genscher and Joschka Fischer and act as a dynamic innovator in European politics.